July Jobs Report – Not So Good . . .
July down and last two months revised downward.
The July jobs report wasn’t just underwhelming. It may have flipped the story on its head.
Payrolls grew by a meager 73,000 jobs, far below the roughly 110,000 anticipated.
Adding insult to injury, May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs — the biggest two-month revision in five years — leaving the labor market’s momentum looking weaker than it has all year.
That means payroll growth has averaged just 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months, once revisions are accounted for, the weakest stretch since early in the COVID-19 pandemic. And it suggests that any job growth in the two earlier reports may have been nothing more than a mirage.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% (the highest level since October 2021), and the overall workforce shrunk, showing that joblessness rose even as fewer people were seeking work — a rare red flag.
The labor market isn’t falling off a cliff, but it’s drifting into dangerous territory.
July jobs report: Payrolls rise 73,000, unemployment climbs to 4.2%
So jobs are down, inflation is up, the housing market is frozen. How does this make America great again?
Joel:
It does not make it great. It does make the US typical though. Costs are definitely up which makes everything (including Labor) more expensive. Demand decreases also. Just like a big circle.
If the pattern holds next month this month will get revised further
Per the pattern I’m still ferreting out, not 73,000 ~ 7,000 …
@Ten,
It’s OK. Trump fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. That should bring back the jobs.
Joel:
I forgot that item of interest. That is why the numbers are so messed up.
And the reason for the massive revisions down? DOGE reported government the layoffs late.
Matthew:
That does make sense. Too bad, they do not play that up more.