Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Increasing Unemployment Due to Deportation

Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Hurts All Workers “Unemployment has increased for U.S.-born workers in the face of mass deportations,” Economic Policy Institute During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance stated mass deportations and a crackdown on immigration would open up more jobs for unemployed U.S. citizens. The removal of immigrant workers would cause opportunities […]

Jobless claims, the most positive data of all, continues to augur for lower unemployment

 – by New Deal democrat The most positive metric in all of economic metric-dom continues to be very positive. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 to 200,000 last week, still among the lowest readings over the entire past 50+ years. The four week moving average declined -4,250 to 203,250, also among the lowest in the past […]

Jobless claims continue near historic lows; I expect the unemployment rate to decline

 – by New Deal democrat  With the stock market flailing around trying to keep its head above water, jobless claims along with consumer spending are the only two metrics that solidly support a continued economic expansion (ok, maybe ISM manufacturing is trending in that way as well). But to the point of this post: last […]

Jobless claims continue recent trends, do not suggest any worsening of unemployment

– by New Deal democrat With the end of the government shutdown, jobless claims are fully updated and back on their regular schedule. And this week, there was more of the same. Initial jobless claims were down -6,000 to a very low 216,000, and the four week average declined -1,000 to 223,750. With the typical […]

Initial claims lower than one year ago

“Initial claims lower than one year ago, an important positive point for the economy”  – by New Deal democrat As per my introduction the past several weeks, despite the government shutdown we can recreate the initial and continuing claims data, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the […]

Initial and continuing claims continue to trend in opposite directions

 – by New Deal democrat Obviously this morning’s PPI number was the most important report of the day. I want to get to that later, but first let’s update the jobless claims situation. The good numbers in initial claims continued, as they declined -3,000 to 224,000. The four week moving average increased 750 to 221,750. But […]

Unemployment Rises in July

Unemployment increases in July. Job growth is slowing and numbers for the two preceding months were lowered to 19,000 in May, down from 144,000 and 14,000 in June, down from 147,000. Were these unusual? According the BLS, they were somewhat larger than experienced in the past, The size of these revisions were “larger than normal,” […]

Jobless Claims May 15 2025

Jobless claims: more of the same  – by New Deal democrat After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims. Initial claims were unchanged at 229,000, while the four week moving average rose 2,250 to 230,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million: […]

Unemployment Programs Provided Vital Support to Workers and the Economy During Pandemic

I wish I could put the entire article up; but then you would probably not read it. I did quite a bit of editing to get this article to the point of establishing what the Gov did during the pandemic concerning unemployment. Much of which was done during Joe Biden’s presidency. Besides showing the first […]

What real spending and the unemployment rate portend for the 2024 Presidential election (so far)

A bit behind here as other things have distracted me in AZ. Health being one of them. A double dose of excellent reviews of the economy today. If there is one commentary (if you are rushed) on Angry Bear you should read concerning the economy, it is NDd’s reporting. Spending and Unemployment are in the […]