New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of […]
Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next […]
Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some […]
Jobless claims: steady as she goes by New Deal democrat [ Special programming note: yesterday’s Fed action, and more important the statements made afterward, merit special attention. I will put up a special post on that later today.] Initial jobless claims remained at their recent low level, down -1,000 from one week ago to 217,000. […]
August JOLTS report: the game of reverse musical chairs in the jobs market is ending – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I’ve been making the point that, because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer persons looking for work, leaving a huge number of unfilled job vacancies, particularly in the […]
Resurrecting the metric: initial claims lead the unemployment rate; no recession signal so far Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose from 4,500 to 223,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 eleven weeks ago. Continuing claims rose […]
I’m not sure if there are studies looking at the long term effects of such advice on one’s health especially in this economy, but I can see where in the words of Arlo Guthrie, it could create a movement. Health Experts Recommend Standing up at Desk, Leaving Office and Never Coming Back ROCHESTER, MN—In an […]
Table V.B2: Additional Economic Assumptions Well I am back and working on a new project in anticipation of the release of the 2015 Report this late Spring. The project involves extracting the Tables and Figures from the Social Security Trustees Report, in this case the 2014, and having them individually web accessible as spreadsheeets or […]
The Eurozone experiment in austerity continues to fail as the peripheral countries endure ongoing cuts. Following up on my post of August 15, it’s time to look at the most recent Irish immigration data to update it through April 2013 (Ireland records population data from May 1 to April 30) and see how it affects […]
Worth a look. Job Losses Post-WWII Recessions (Bill McBride, Calculated Risk) Click on graph for larger image.