As suggested by New Deal democrat, the nation is experiencing an expansion of the economy which seems less likely to end in a recession. “There has been some commentary that continuing claims mean a recession is imminent or may even be underway. I am discounting that because initial claims have always signaled first, and also […]

Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -14,000 to 209,000 last week, and the four week moving average declined -750 to 220,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined -22,000 to 1.840 million: On a YoY basis, both weekly claims and their four week average […]

Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims […]

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change […]

Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continued claims, with a one week delay, declined 6,000 to 1.670 million: To state the […]