– by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending, in addition to the jobs report, has become one of the most important monthly reports I follow, mainly because I am looking for signs that the contractionary effects of Fed tightening are finally taking effect. To cut to the chase, this month’s report was mainly positive, […]

May 2024 manufacturing report. Manufacturing was up in May after following two months of it being down in April and March. There is belief, manufacturing will be down in June as the FED did not reduce the FED Rate. I also suspect manufacturing will not take off in June. However, I believe it will be […]

 – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month starts out with important data on manufacturing and construction. The news was mixed this month and weighted more to the downside in my opinion. First, the ISM report on manufacturing declined again slightly to 48.7. This is the second month in a row that this index […]

 – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending have become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow. This is in large part because the big question this year is whether the contractionary effects of Fed tightening have just been delayed until this year, or whether the fact that there have been […]

 – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 219,000. More importantly, the 4 week moving average rose another 2,500 to 222,500, the highest level in 9 months. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims rose 4,000 to 1.791 million: On the one hand, it does appear that claims have been […]

 – by New Deal democrat We’ll get weekly unemployment claims tomorrow, and the very important personal income and spending report Friday, before we begin the slew of reports for the beginning of June next week. But since there’s a slow news day today, let’s take a bigger picture look at the state of the economy. […]

 – by New Deal democrat The FHFA and Case Shiller repeat sales indexes are the last home sales and price data for the month. Two months ago I wrote that “for the next seven months the comparisons will be against an average 0.7% increase per month in 2023. Because house price indexes have shown a […]

 – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my Big Picture theme for this year, now that the supply chain tailwind has ended, will the effects of the 2022-23 Fed rate hikes drag the economy down towards recession at last, or will there be a “soft landing” (or no landing at all) instead, because interest rates […]

 – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -8,000 last week to 215,000, well within its recent nine month range, after a two week elevated excursion. The four week moving average, reflecting that excursion, increased to a nine month high of 219,750. Continuing claims, with the usual one week delay, rose 8,000 to 1.794 million, […]

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Here is today’s update on one of my favorite indicators: retail sales. In April they were unchanged on a nominal basis. Adjusted for inflation they declined -0.3% for the month. They are also down -6.2% from their 2021 peak and -2.9% since January 2023: On a YoY basis, they […]