Industrial and manufacturing production continue to falter – by New Deal democrat I frequently call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because so often the turning point in this metric has been at the peaks and troughs of the economy as a whole. That has not been the case since last September, when this […]
A story . . . Supplier working relationships were always tough in automotive. A lot of politicking going there, lunches, dinners, etc. Kind of difficult to walk a straight line with them and maintain an ethical standard. Yet, I did and was known for doing what I said I would do. I worked for several […]
Forecast: real manufacturing and trade sales are likely to set a new record for January – by New Deal democrat One of the four monthly series of coincident indicators most relied upon by the NBER in determining whether the economy is in expansion or recession is Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. A significant problem with it […]
Despite sharp rebounds in retail sales and manufacturing production, both metrics are on the cusp of being recessionary – by New Deal democrat Retail sales for January rose strongly in January,up 30% in nominal terms and up 2.4% after accounting for inflation. While that looks great, it only reverses the two downward readings of November […]
A respite in manufacturing in August, continued decline in construction in July As usual, the new month’s first data is for manufacturing and construction. Here’s a look at each. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In August, after two months of […]
Quick note; “ISM metric strongly suggests that it is likely that the economy will enter recession no later than Q1 of next year, and possibly much sooner (but probably not now). more detail below July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new […]
Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. Manufacturing and production equipment such as special tooling, patterns, molds, […]
Manufacturing positive, but no longer red hot; inflation-adjusted construction spending is flat In addition to the jobs report, Friday gave us updates on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. While the index remained positive, its leading new orders […]
Manufacturing continues strong in January; construction continued to sag in December As usual, the first data for last month starts out with the ISM manufacturing report. This index, especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In January the index declined from 58.8 to 57.6, as did the more […]
WSJ reports Stocks rose broadly Thursday morning after the GDP report, but they retreated later in the day, with the Nasdaq falling 1.4%, the S&P 500 dropping 0.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.02%. Thursday’s report contained warning signs. Most of the growth owed to companies’ restocking rather than people and firms buying […]