Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

September industrial production turns down, but no major cause for concern

September industrial production turns down, but no major cause for concern Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. This morning’s report for September was negative, and August was revised downward, taking total production back below pre-pandemic levels. Total production decreased -1.3% in September, and the manufacturing component decreased -0.8%. The August reading for each […]

Industrial production now exceeds pre-pandemic level

Industrial production now exceeds pre-pandemic level Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported this morning for August and was positive in a particularly significant way. Total production increased 0.4% in August, and the manufacturing component increased 0.1%. Nothing particularly special about that; in fact the manufacturing component was a little weak compared with […]

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (still being pretty good news)

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (bad news still being pretty good news)  – by New Deal democrat This morning brought the July report for the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, as well as one of my favorite consumer side indicators, retail sales. Let’s take a look at each. Industrial sales increased strongly […]

Industrial production slightly positive overall, but with negative revisions

Industrial production slightly positive overall, but with negative revisions Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides with the NBER determination of the beginning and end of recessions. Production increased 0.4% in June, but May’s result was reduced by -0.2%. The manufacturing component declined less than […]

Industrial production on the verge of exceeding pre-pandemic level

Industrial production on the verge of exceeding pre-pandemic level Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides with the NBER determination of the beginning and end of recessions. In May, total production increased +0.8%. Manufacturing production increased +0.9%. Both current readings are the highest since the […]

April Industrial Production slightly disappoints – but only due to supply chain bottlenecks

April Industrial Production slightly disappoints – but only due to supply chain bottlenecks   Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators, and is the one whose peaks and troughs most frequently mark the beginning and end of recessions. It had been bouncing back strongly, but in the last several months, has hit something of […]

Industrial production for March disappoints – but only on the surface

Industrial production for March disappoints – but only on the surface As an initial note, retail sales for March blew out to the upside, but as expected due to cosnumers’ spending their latest pandemic stimulus checks. This does have implications for future jobs reports, but I will report on that tomorrow. But to the main […]

Industrial production continues strong growth

Industrial production continues strong growth If real retail sales (reported on in the prior post) is the best proxy for the health of the consumer, Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, is the same for production.  And the news there was also very good. Overall production rose 0.9% in December, and the manufacturing component […]

Euro Area ‘Hard Data’ Catching Up with the ‘Soft Data’ – Industrial Production

by Rebecca Wilder Euro Area ‘Hard Data’ Catching Up with the ‘Soft Data’ – Industrial Production Euro area industrial production (ex construction) declined 0.8% in the month of April. Across the major sectors, the largest decline occurred in capital goods; however, the trend in consumer and intermediate goods is worse than that of capital goods. […]