– by New Deal democrat
September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession.
I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and troughs of US economic activity as determined by the NBER. In September total production increased 0.4%, and August was revised higher by 0.3%. Manufacturing production increased 0.5%, and August was revised higher by 0.1%:
Total industrial production is at an all time high. Manufacturing is higher than at any previous level with the exception of the end of 2006 through early 2008.
Today’s report, including revisions, also reverses the decelerating trend which I noted last month, as shown by the YoY% changes:
Because this is, as I said at the outset, a coincident indicator, it does not materially change my forecast for next year. But it is good news for now.
“August industrial production declines; overall decelerating trend consistent with recession in 2023,” Angry Bear, New Deal democrat