August industrial production declines; overall decelerating trend consistent with recession in 2023
August industrial production declines; overall decelerating trend consistent with recession in 2023
– by New Deal democrat
Finishing today’s data dump, industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, declined -0.2% in August, while manufacturing production increased 0.1%. July’s sharp gains in both were revised slightly (-0.1%) downward:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpaZ35uoHcvN5avD-FA7qTEKSntFB9Xa78jqah3c1ZklimEiSC8fnRHf0N3iaxWUMs6UpwqGbFbzHYncK-lnLRfNBCr6xWGmdfkD-Vzv5M7peIqzQC1QrO3NJ0e5nXCBvF_Cf2cLujUiEjwhOY1k4gglJjEHvqIUT8MSgpwxcQpQnZyrNRGW-qlDg1gg/w400-h173/947454AF-F468-4E2D-B2E3-AA96D3836BCD.jpeg)
While July remains the high water mark for overall production, manufacturing has not made a new high since April.
What I see is a decelerating trend which will probably continue to worsen as the Fed raises rates. This adds to the evidence that a recession is likely next year.