Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

July mfg. and June constr. spending: leading components of both are negative

Quick note; “ISM metric strongly suggests that it is likely that the economy will enter recession no later than Q1 of next year, and possibly much sooner (but probably not now). more detail below July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new […]

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead

Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In May both increased, by 0.7 to 56.1, and by […]

Manufacturing continues strong in January; construction continued to sag in December

Manufacturing continues strong in January; construction continued to sag in December As usual, the first data for last month starts out with the ISM manufacturing report. This index, especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector.  In January the index declined from 58.8 to 57.6, as did the more […]

Manufacturing still red hot; construction still very cool

Manufacturing still red hot; construction still very cool Our first November data is out this morning with the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report for October, as well as construction spending for October. Let’s take the ISM report first, since it is an important short leading indicator for the production sector, and in particular its new orders […]

Manufacturing and construction – remain “on fire”

The two most leading sectors of the real economy – manufacturing and construction – remain “on fire” Data for January 2021 started out this morning with the ISM manufacturing index, while the December laggard of construction spending was also reported.  While the ISM manufacturing reading declined from 60.7 to 58.7, since 50 is the break-even […]