– by New Deal democrat
The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week.
Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first two are close to their post-pandemic lows of one year ago, and continuing claims are the lowest since the end of October:
As usual, for forecasting purposes the YoY change is more important. YoY weekly initial claims are lower by -1.5%, and the four week average lower by -0.6%. While continuing claims are higher by 11.5%, this is the lowest level since last March:
This very much negatives recession in the immediate future, as is confirmed by comparing the monthly change in YoY initial claims through December, which leads the YoY change in the unemployment rate by several months:
Any triggering of the “Sahm rule” for recessions in the immediate future is off the table.