Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New jobless claims: a surprise to the positive side

New jobless claims: a surprise to the positive side I have been paying particular attention to new jobless claims this year, as being the most important weekly economic datapoint to correlate with vaccination progress. My ultimate target for claims is an average of 325,000 or below, which would signify a return to normal expansion levels in […]

The long leading indicators: on the cusp of turning negative?

– by New Deal democrat The long leading indicators: on the cusp of turning negative? A “long leading indicator” is an economic metric that reliably turns a year or more before the onset of a recession. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and in 1993 wrote  Leading Economic Indicators: New […]

JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions index consistent with late 2017 recession

by New Deal deomocrat JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions index consistent with late 2017 recession   I continue to be unimpressed with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), as showing post-mid cycle deceleration for over a year.   I have found what I hope is a better way to present my argument, so that you […]

Refinancing is dead: a generation of Hard Times will continue until secularly real wages improve

New Deal Democrat writing from The Bonddad Blog On Monday I gave what I think is a reasonable roadmap to the next recession. I want to follow up on this a little. The post from nearly 10 years ago was entitled, Are Hard Times Near? The great decline in interest rates is ending.” The theory […]

Why hasn’t increased household formation led to increased housing construction?

by New Deal democrat Why hasn’t increased household formation led to increased housing construction? Tim Taylor has an interesting article about “What was different about housing this time?”  Specifically, why has housing in both building terms and as a share of GDP risen so slowly since 2009. To cut to the chase, he writes that […]

Aside from a shortage in starter housing for Millennials,there is NO inflation

by New Deal democrat Aside from a shortage in starter housing for Millennials,there is NO inflation Yesterday’s CPI report seems to be read as potentially justifying an interest rate increase in June.  For example, here’s Professor Tim Duy, on Fed hawks: Inflation rose on the back of higher gas prices. Headline CPI gained 0.4 percent, […]

Rents are going through the roof!

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has just pointed to The unfairness of housing purchases through time.     New Deal democrat and Barkley Rosser (at Econospeak) have pointed to problems with rental prices.  NDd continues with this post, also pointing to Bill McBride at Calculated Risk… by New Deal democrat Rents are going through the roof! Rent […]

Consumer Expenditures Survey: incomes rose sharply from June 2014-June 2015

by New Deal democrat Consumer Expenditures Survey: incomes rose sharply from June 2014-June 2015 A major piece of data came out last week that has been totally unreported in the media and econoblogosphere:  the Consumer Expenditures Survey (CES) for June 2014- June 2015. This is the first CES report to include the period of rapidly […]

The best measure of labor market recoveries: March 2016 update

by New Deal democrat The best measure of labor market recoveries: March 2016 update In my opinion the best measure of how average Americans are doing in an economic expansion isn’t jobs, and it isn’t wages per hour.  Rather, it is real aggregate wage growth.  This is calculated as follows: average wages per hour for […]

One long term indicator changes to Yellow

by New Deal democrat (Bondadd blog) One long term indicator changes to Yellow   One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since middle class wages peaked in the 1970s, the ability to refinance debt at lower interest rates has been an important coping mechanism.  Particularly since the 1980s, […]