Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn

August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn Let’s take a look at retail sales, which are perhaps my favorite monthly economic indicator, since they tell us so much about average consumer behavior, and are also a good short leading indicator for jobs.Nominally retail sales increased 0.7% for August, after […]

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (still being pretty good news)

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (bad news still being pretty good news)  – by New Deal democrat This morning brought the July report for the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, as well as one of my favorite consumer side indicators, retail sales. Let’s take a look at each. Industrial sales increased strongly […]

June retail sales decline after taking inflation into account, but overall pandemic gains “stick”

June retail sales decline after taking inflation into account, but overall pandemic gains “stick” As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it gives us so much information about the consumer economy.  The news for June was mixed. Nominally retail sales were up +0.6% for the month. But after taking into account […]

May retail sales decline, but 10%+ gain in retail sales since the onset of the pandemic remains intact

May retail sales decline, but 10%+ gain in retail sales since the onset of the pandemic remains intact [Note: I’ll comment on industrial production in a separate post later] I feel like I could simply repost my retail sales piece from one month ago, because the story is the same: at first glance, May’s retail […]

April retail sales “disappoint,” but maintain almost all of March’s surge

April retail sales “disappoint,” but maintain almost all of March’s surge [Note: I’ll comment on industrial production in a separate post later] At first glance, April’s retail sales report looks like another Big Miss. Nominally (blue) sales increased less than 0.1% (rounded to unchanged). Adjusted for inflation (red), they declined -0.7%: But the important point […]

Why March’s big jump in real retail sales augurs well for big employment gains through summer

Why March’s big jump in real retail sales augurs well for big employment gains through summer Yesterday I wrote that the steep decline in new jobless claims in the past 4 weeks likely presages another big monthly employment gain, on the order of 1 million or more jobs. Another very big positive for the next […]

Let’s put a sales tax on Wall Street

I learned of a petition at the presidents site, that one where anyone can start a petition and have it addressed if you reach 100,000 signatures. We the People it’s called. The petition is sponsored by United Front Against Austerity which also goes by the name Against Austerity.org  I know nothing about this organization, though […]

Euro Area Retail Sales Portend Negative Quarter of Real Consumption

Euro Area Retail Sales Portend Negative Quarter of Real Consumption by Rebecca Wilder Today Eurostat released its June estimate of real retail sales for the Euro area. On a month/month basis, real retail sales increased at a rate of 0.1%. However, on a trended basis, the 3-month/3-month average growth rate was down 0.7% in the […]

Wilder on ‘Real retail sales in Europe: will German consumers save the day? Maybe, perhaps’

After the US report on Q2… Angry Bear and credit market weakness in the eurozone, Rebecca takes a look at the retail side of the economy: Retail sales in Germany and Spain were reported last week for the month of June. On a working-day and not-seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales fell 7.0% on the […]