Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY

November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY  – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 […]

September real retail sales lay another egg

September real retail sales lay another egg  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have […]

July real retail sales show more stagnation, but slightly positive YoY

July real retail sales show more stagnation, but slightly positive YoY Consumption leads employment. Increasing demand for goods and services leads employers to hire more people to fulfill that demand. That, in a nutshell, is the biggest reason why real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators. In July, nominal retail sales increased […]

March and April’s retail sales Revised Higher

RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in April after March Sales Revised 0.9% Higher Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.9% in April, after retail sales March were revised 0.9% higher, while sales for February were revised a bit lower . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for April (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated […]

Real retail sales declined in November, but continue to auger well for strong jobs growth

Real retail sales declined in November, but continue to auger well for strong jobs growth, New Deal Democrat Retail sales, one of my favorite “real” economic indicators, were reported this morning for November. They increased 0.3% for the month, and October’s blockbuster report was revised 0.1% higher, to +1.8%. After inflation, though, “real” retail sales declined […]

Retail Sales Up 1.7% in October, August and September Revised Higher

MarketWatch 666 Blogger RJS on the macroeconomic implications of retail sales, estimates the impact of retail sales on GDP. Retail Sales Rose 1.7% in October after August & September Sales Were Revised Higher Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased 1.7% in October after retail sales for August and September were revised higher…the Advance Retail Sales Report for […]

August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn

August retail sales rebound slightly, argue for continued strong jobs growth in autumn Let’s take a look at retail sales, which are perhaps my favorite monthly economic indicator, since they tell us so much about average consumer behavior, and are also a good short leading indicator for jobs.Nominally retail sales increased 0.7% for August, after […]

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (still being pretty good news)

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (bad news still being pretty good news)  – by New Deal democrat This morning brought the July report for the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, as well as one of my favorite consumer side indicators, retail sales. Let’s take a look at each. Industrial sales increased strongly […]

June retail sales decline after taking inflation into account, but overall pandemic gains “stick”

June retail sales decline after taking inflation into account, but overall pandemic gains “stick” As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it gives us so much information about the consumer economy.  The news for June was mixed. Nominally retail sales were up +0.6% for the month. But after taking into account […]

May retail sales decline, but 10%+ gain in retail sales since the onset of the pandemic remains intact

May retail sales decline, but 10%+ gain in retail sales since the onset of the pandemic remains intact [Note: I’ll comment on industrial production in a separate post later] I feel like I could simply repost my retail sales piece from one month ago, because the story is the same: at first glance, May’s retail […]