May JOLTS report: continued decelerating trend, but still extremely positive – by New Deal democrat Let me start out with the statement that has been my touchstone for the JOLTS report for the last year or more: for the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical chairs,” where there are […]
Initial jobless claims: moving closer to a red flag warning – by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4 week average declined -3,500 to 253,250. With a one week lag, continued claims declined -13,000 to 1.20 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up […]
Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all the way back to the 1940s, and has been a very good short leading indicator of recession throughout that time (although nothing’s perfect!). […]
SUNDAY, JULY 2, 2023 Weekly Indicators for June 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Movement among the indicators continues to be slow as molasses, but an important bifurcation stands out: indicators focusing on services continue to show good growth, while indicators focusing […]
Real income continues to set records, while real spending and real total sales falter – by New Deal democrat Real personal spending faltered in May, and real total sales continued to falter in April, as of this morning’s report; while real personal income continued to be aided by the big decline in gas prices that […]
Pent-up demand and sales: an update – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today. So while we wait to see if initial jobless claims continue to worsen tomorrow, and what happens with real personal spending and income, as well as real business sales on Friday, let me point you to an updated […]
House prices increase for third straight month, but Case Shiller index now negative YoY – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through April as measured by both the FHFA (red in the graph below) and Case Shiller (blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the latter by 0.5%. This is the third […]
New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for June 19 – 23 2023 – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. When nothing dramatic is happening, high frequency information can be like watching paint dry. That’s where we are at the moment. The positives – like improving sentiment in the stock market – […]
Back to the basics: how do initial claims, total hours worked, aggregate real payrolls, and job growth relate? – by New Deal democratFed One of the most important reasons why big Fed rate hikes and big downturns in things like housing starts and credit provision haven’t translated into a recession this year (so far!) is […]
Initial claims: yellow caution flag turns more orange – by New Deal democrat Initial claims, which were one of the most positive indicators of all last year, have turned darker in the last several months, and are edging closer to triggering their recession warning levels. Claims were unchanged at a revised 264,000 last week, the […]