Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

House price increases still strong, but clear deceleration from peak

House price increases still strong, but clear deceleration from peak The Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were reporting this morning, covering the period through December. As you all know well, my mantra is that interest rates lead sales, and sales in turn lead prices. Here’s this month’s update. The monthly increase in the […]

New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate

New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices.New home sales (blue in the graph below) for December rose sharply to 811,000 on an annualized basis. This is […]

House price increases continue to show strong market at the end

House price increases continue to show strong market at the end The last housing market data for 2021, the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes, were reported this morning. Both showed a very slight deceleration in the soaring prices that have marked this year. The FHFA purchase-only index rose 1.1% for October. The YoY% […]

House prices continue to surge. But maybe . . .

House prices continue to surge. But maybe . . . Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released this morning. Both showed a continued surge in house prices, with one difference that may be of importance. First, here are both indexes normed to 100 as of January 1991, when the FHFA […]

House prices continue to surge, with affordability near its worst since the Great Recession

House prices continue to surge, with affordability near its worst since the Great Recession   The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes for May and April, respectively, were released this morning. Because housing affordability is very much an issue, let’s take a look. YoY the FHFA index is up 15.7%, and the Case Shiller […]

New home sales decline in April, revised sharply lower for March; prices continue to skyrocket, while inventory increases

New home sales decline in April, revised sharply lower for March; prices continue to skyrocket, while inventory increases This morning both new home sales and two price indexes for houses were released for April, completing our view of that important long leading sector. As anticipated, not only did new home sales decline for the month, […]

Home Values: Delusional Buyers, Bank Squeezers and Zillow

by Mike Kimel Home Values: Delusional Buyers, Bank Squeezers and Zillow Via Barry Ritholtz, a link to a post at Time Moneyland post which led to a post at the Zillow blog: Zillow recently compared the asking price of 1 million for-sale homes with those homes’ previous purchase price, then factored in the change in […]

Telling the Right Story, or Economists Catching Up Round One

Anyone who was in the MBS market and not working for a primary originator can tell you that the MBS securitization market ended around Halloween 2006. (Those of us who were at places with origination go a few more months, but had no flow by February.) Only economists were fooled by what I’ve been calling […]

David Streitfeld Knows Better than This

The NYT moves deeply into delusion: The rolling real estate crash that ravaged Florida and the Southwest is delivering a new wave of distress to communities once thought to be immune— economically diversified cities where the boom was relatively restrained. In the last year, home prices in Seattle had a bigger decline than in Las […]

Bernanke: We Didn’t Do a Good job Regulating, so Let Us Regulate More

UPDATE: CR appears to agree with me, even as he raises another point: Bernanke used data from other countries to suggest monetary policy was not a huge contributor to the bubble … however, Bernanke didn’t discuss if non-traditional mortgage products contributed to housing bubbles in other countries. This would seem like a key missing part […]