Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Manufacturing and construction show softness to start the month

Manufacturing and construction show softness to start the month  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference over time, especially the last 20 years, is that […]

Vehicle sales, residential, and manufacturing plant construction

Vehicle sales and residential and manufacturing plant construction continue to outweigh general manufacturing downturn  –  by New Deal democrat No important economic news today, but on Friday in addition to the employment report we did get our typical 1st of the month snapshot of manufacturing, vehicle sales, and construction, so let’s look at each. The ISM […]

Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy

Manufacturing and construction sectors continue downward pull on economy  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start the month with new manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index goes all the way back to the 1940s, and has been a very good short leading indicator of recession throughout that time (although nothing’s perfect!). […]

February Mfg. and January Const. Continue Negative, while Auto Sales Improve

February manufacturing and January construction continue negative, while auto sales improve  – by New Deal democrat We started out yet another month of data with bad news in two leading sectors. The ISM manufacturing index has been showing contraction since November, and its more leading new orders subindex since September. And did so again in February, […]

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending declines

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines  – by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing index declined -1.0 to 47.4. According to the ISM, 48 is the cutoff below which is more consistent with […]

More Bad News in Manufacturing and Construction

“Manufacturing and construction start out the second half of 2022 with more bad news“  – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In June, […]

Manufacturing and construction start out the month with positive prints

Manufacturing and construction start out the month with positive prints As per usual, the new month starts with updates on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. This remained positive, but there has been a definite slowing in the […]

First data releases of 2022 confirm manufacturing strength, construction slowdown

First data releases of 2022 confirm manufacturing strength, construction slowdown The first December data, the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report, has been released. Yesterday construction spending for November was also released. Let’s take a look at both. The ISM index, especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In […]

Manufactuing remains white hot, while construction spending is mixed

Manufactuing remains white hot, while construction spending is mixed As usual, we started out the month with the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report for September, as well as construction spending for August. Let’s take the ISM report first since it is an important short-leading indicator for the production sector. And here, the news was good, as […]

May manufacturing continues white hot; April construction spending shows signs of being constrained by materials and costs

May manufacturing continues white hot; April construction spending shows signs of being constrained by materials and costs It’s the first of the month, which means we get our first look at May data in the form of the ISM manufacturing index, as well as April construction spending. The questions we are looking for information to […]