April industrial production looks great! – until you account for the March revisions – by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s three significant economic releases was April industrial production, and here the revisions were very important. In April total production increased 0.5% from March, but March itself was revised downward by -0.5%, so […]
Weekly Indicators for May 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was more slow deterioration in the coincident indicators, but interestingly a bounce in several of the short leading indicators, particularly in the weakness of the US$ (which paradoxically is a positive, […]
Real hourly and aggregate wages update; plus further comments on consumer and producer inflation – by New Deal democrat Let’s update some inflation-related information. First of all, real hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased less than 0.1% in April. They are up about 3% from just before the pandemic, and also up a little over 1% […]
Yellow flag from initial jobless claims turns a little more orangey – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 264,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 6,000 to 245,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 12,000 to 1.813 million: Note that both measures of initial claims are at […]
Inflation ex-shelter increasing at 1.0% annualized rate since last June; core inflation with actual house prices only up 3.0% YoY – by New Deal democrat Two months ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. With revisions, the […]
Credit conditions worsen, and likely to worsen further due to Debt Ceiling Debacle II – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey, which measures credit on offer by banks, and the demand for credit by their customers, was released yesterday afternoon for Q1, and the news – unsurprisingly – was not good. Credit conditions […]
April jobs report: deceleration continues, with sharp downward revisions to previous months’ gains – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. While the deceleration in growth did occur – and substantially […]
Jobless claims hoist yellow flag again; employment and unemployment likely to show further deceleration tomorrow – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 242,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 3,500 to 239,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined -38,000 to 1.805 million: This is right in the […]
The un(der)employment rate leads wage growth: 2023 update – by New Deal democrat I had already planned on taking an updated look at wage growth today, but there was a little flutter on twitter about job openings and last week’s Q1 wage and benefits data, so that sealed the deal. To wit: as I used […]
New Deal democrat has a post up. I hope you read it as it is some of the best commentary on the internet abut Labor, Employment, Unemployment, plus the basis for each. I read him each day as I post his dialogue. It is excellent. So as you are waiting for me to post a […]