Real average wages and real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers through January – by New Deal democrat With no new data today, to close out the week let’s update real average wages and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. This is the best way, based on monthly data, to see how average Americans are doing financially. While […]
The #1 likely reason I suspect the economy has not gone into recession yet – by New Deal democrat I’ve been reading increasing talk about the fabled “soft landing,” or alternatively, “rolling recession.” For example, over the weekend Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab told “Wall Street Week” that housing is already in a recession, but […]
Updating some important coincident indicators – by New Deal democrat We returned to no more significant monthly data today. So here are some important coincident indicators I’ve been particularly following. Redbook consumer purchases only increased 4.3% YoY last week, the lowest number in almost 2 years. The 4 week average also declined to 4.7%, also […]
Scenes from the blockbuster January jobs report 2: revisions do not resolve discrepancies in the reports – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that the blockbuster January jobs report was essentially the result of two factors: (1) a very low number of potential applicants in the jobs pool with an unemployment rate well under 4% […]
Scenes from the blockbuster jobs report 1: in January, nobody* got laid off! (*hyperbole) – by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic data until Thursday this week. Meanwhile, there was lots to digest about Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, which I have now done, so I’m going to spend a couple (maybe 3!) days […]
Weekly Indicators for January 30 – February 3 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While yesterday’s blockbuster jobs report dominated the monthly reports, several important weekly reports, notably the 4 week average of retail sales as measured by Redbook, and the temporary Staffing Index, weakened further […]
January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration – by New Deal democrat My focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and construction jobs turned negative or not, and whether the deceleration apparent in job growth would continue. Both of those were answered emphatically in the negative. Here’s my in depth synopsis. HEADLINES: […]
JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive – by New Deal democrat The message from the JOLTS report for December yesterday and jobless claims for last week today is that the labor market remains the strongest sector of the economy, with plenty of unfilled job openings, and almost no layoffs. Initial […]
House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peaked at the beginning of 2022, and starts followed several months later. This morning the FHFA and […]
Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because […]