by New Deal democrat The best measure of labor market recoveries: March 2016 update In my opinion the best measure of how average Americans are doing in an economic expansion isn’t jobs, and it isn’t wages per hour.  Rather, it is real aggregate wage growth.  This is calculated as follows: average wages per hour for […]

by New Deal democrat (Bondadd blog) One long term indicator changes to Yellow   One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since middle class wages peaked in the 1970s, the ability to refinance debt at lower interest rates has been an important coping mechanism.  Particularly since the 1980s, […]

– by New Deal democrat       Forecasting the 2016 election economy, first forecast: the long leading indicators Last week I showed that, going back 160 years, roughly 3/4 of all US Presidential election results correlated positively with whether or not at the time of the election campaign, the US was in a recession […]

by New Deal democrat Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time If you want a quick and dirty guide to whether an incumbent political party will retain control of the White House in a Presidential election, simply […]

– by New Deal democrat Part 1 The decline in prime age labor force participation: the smoking gun (part 2 of 2); comparing June Cleaver and Roseanne Conner I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the “child care cost […]

by New Deal democrat   (Bonddad blog) The decline in prime age labor participation: the smoking gun (Part 1of 2) I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the increase in the number of second-earner spouses who decided to stay […]

Some other insights on the data in addition to Angry Bear Spencer England: Mixed Message on the Labor Front BLS released its Employment Situation Summary for July. The payroll survey showed an increase in employment of $163 thousand but that unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. So what was the deal from the household survey? Actually […]