November jobs report: decidedly mixed signals, most consistent with a still-growing but decidedly weakening economy – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I have expected employment to follow the halt in consumption growth, decelerating over time to a stall. This has only intensified given the major decline in growth in payroll withholding […]
November manufacturing and October construction both decline, the former almost at recessionary levels – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin the new month’s data with the ISM manufacturing index. This index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months […]
Strong personal income and spending contrast with near record low in saving – by New Deal democrat Like retail sales earlier in November, personal income and spending both rose smartly, as shown in the below graph of real retail sales compared with real personal spending: Real personal income was up 0.4%, and real personal spending increased […]
Initial jobless claims get closer to signaling recession – by New Deal democrat Today is one of those data-palooza days, so I’ll put up separate posts on personal income and spending, and the ISM manufacturing report and construction spending reports later. But let’s start with weekly jobless claims, and the news here is OK for […]
October JOLTS report shows continued deceleration in jobs market, with continuing gap in job openings filled – by New Deal democrat For the past year, I have likened the jobs market to a game of reverse musical chairs, where there are more chairs than players. Some chairs are always left empty. The chairs are jobs, […]
Have new home sales made a bottom? – by New Deal democrat Hopefully you are recovering from your turkey coma today. Here’s a little late commentary on Wednesday’s new home sales report. New home sales are noisy, and heavily revised, which is why I prefer housing permits, and especially single family housing permits, as a […]
More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports – by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, laying out all of the short leading indicators, and concluding conditions have now been met for a recession to begin at any point in the next 6 months. There’s one graph I intended […]
When will housing construction turn down? A fuller consideration – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Also I am traveling this week, so there might be some light posting, as in, I might skip a day or two. But I very much want to see what is happening with house prices, which […]
September existing home sales and prices decline – by New Deal democrat With the exception of their big impact on prices, I do not particularly pay attention to existing home sales. Their economic impact is small compared with the construction of new homes which may have spearheaded by companies like that New Home Builder in […]
Jobless claims flat for the moment – by New Deal democrat There’s no big news in the jobless claims release this week. Initial claims fell -12,000 to 214,000, but the 4 week average increased 1,250 to 212,250. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 21,000 to 1,385,000: To the extent there is any discernible trend, I […]