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New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators September 18 – 22 2023

NewDealdemocrat | September 24, 2023 8:00 am

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US Economics

Weekly Indicators for September 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha

– by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the existing home market completely seized up, the background financial condition have trended even worse. Meanwhile the shorter term indicators may be getting reading to peak. But their previous sharp increase has worked its way into most of the coincident data.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you right up to the virtual moment, and reward me with a couple of centavos for my efforts.

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for September 11 – 15 2023, Angry Bear (angrybearblog.com)

10 Comments

Fred C. Dobbs says:

September 27, 2023 at 6:39 am

Senate Reaches Spending Deal to Head Off Government Shutdown

NY Times – Sep 26 – late

An agreement between Senate Republicans and Democrats would keep agencies open through mid-November and provide billions in aid for Ukraine and disaster relief. But House Republicans are likely to balk.

Senate Republicans and Democrats reached agreement on Tuesday on a stopgap spending plan that would head off a government shutdown on Sunday while providing billions in disaster relief and aid to Ukraine, but the measure faced resistance in the Republican-led House.

The legislation cleared its first procedural obstacle Tuesday night on a bipartisan vote of 77 to 19. It would keep government funding flowing through Nov. 17 to allow more time for negotiations over yearlong spending bills and provide about $6 billion for the Ukraine war effort as well as approximately $6 billion for disaster relief in the wake of a series of wildfires and floods.

Senate leaders hoped to pass it by the end of the week and send it to the House in time to avert a shutdown now set to begin at midnight Saturday. But there was no guarantee that Speaker Kevin McCarthy would bring the legislation to the House floor for a vote, since some far-right Republicans have said they would try to remove him from his post if he did.

Still, in putting the legislation forward, Senate leaders in both parties were ratcheting up the pressure on Mr. McCarthy, who countered by declaring on Tuesday night that he would put a stopgap spending plan of his own to a vote later in the week that would “secure our border and keep government open.” …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  September 27, 2023 at 6:44 am
  
  POLITICS House advances GOP-backed spending bills, but threat of government shutdown remains
  
  CBS News – Sep 26 – late
  
  (Only MTG voted against?)
  
  House Republicans voted to advance four conservative spending bills on Tuesday in a long-sought display of unity that nonetheless doesn’t move Congress any closer to preventing a government shutdown.
  
  The relatively routine vote to bring the bills to the House floor for debate gave Speaker Kevin McCarthy a win after days of Republican infighting between moderates and a contingent of hardline House conservatives over how to fund the government.
  
  But the move will likely do little to change the dynamics underlying the fight over government spending, with just days to go before government funding expires.
  
  Even if the House were to pass all four bills to fund the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, State and Agriculture for another year, they contain spending cuts that make them dead on arrival in the Senate, where Democrats are working on their own solution to avoid a shutdown.
  
  A contingent of hard-right Republicans in the House are opposed to a short-term funding extension and want deeper spending cuts. They twice defeated McCarthy’s efforts to advance the defense spending bill last week, and have vowed to oppose what’s known as a “continuing resolution,” which would extend government funding at current levels as broader talks unfold. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    September 27, 2023 at 6:53 am
    The House voted to pass a rule vote to begin debate on four separate spending bills after two rules votes failed last week, prompting Republicans to burst into applaus on the floor.
    
    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., was the only Republican to vote against the rule, opposing the ‘blood money’ it contained for Ukraine.
    
    The House now moves on to debating amendments for the agriculture-FDA, defense, homeland security and state appropriations bills. …
    
    House Republicans FINALLY vote to advance four spending bills
    
    Daily Mail (UK) – Sep 26 – late
    
    GOP leader McCarthy said he would put a CR, or a stopgap spending bill to fund the government past September 30, on the floor before Saturday
    
    The speaker can only afford to lose four Republican votes and still pass a party-line CR loaded up with spending cuts
    
    Senate is advancing a ‘clean’ CR without spending cuts, which McConnell has endorsed
Fred C. Dobbs says:

September 27, 2023 at 12:49 pm

Facing a potential government shutdown in four days triggered by House Republicans’ inability to unite to pass spending bills, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is trying out a new strategy: shifting the blame.

While there’s no reliable polling yet on which party voters would blame more for a government shutdown, many Republicans privately worry it will be theirs.

McCarthy is starting to point fingers at Democrats in a bid to pin a shutdown on disagreements over border security. It’s an attempt to rewrite the record of the past several weeks, during which House Republicans have been unable to pass a short-term bill to prevent a shutdown — even one that includes the border security policies his conference overwhelmingly supports.

McCarthy spoke with reporters four times on Tuesday. He repeated similar talking points each time, criticizing President Biden’s handling of the border and the steady stream of undocumented immigrants who cross it.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) updated reporters late on Sept. 26 about the progress of government funding negotiations. (Video: The Washington Post)

Asked by Lisa Desjardins of PBS NewsHour whether there will be a shutdown, McCarthy responded, “I don’t know. Ask President Biden.”

Of course, Biden has played no role in bringing Congress to the brink of a shutdown. …

McCarthy’s new shutdown strategy: Shifting the blame

Washington Post – Sep 27

In fact, McCarthy has sidelined Democrats and refused to take up a bipartisan stopgap funding bill because he’s afraid hard-right Republicans will try to oust him from the speakership. Many of those same Republican hard-liners have blocked McCarthy from passing a continuing resolution (CR) to prevent a shutdown with Republican votes, too.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  September 27, 2023 at 12:55 pm
  
  Kevin McCarthy Kills Bipartisan Senate Bill to Avert Shutdown
  
  The Daily Beast – just in
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    September 27, 2023 at 12:57 pm
    
    Just four days out from a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has declared a bipartisan Senate stopgap measure dead on arrival. Senators, having apparently lost faith in McCarthy’s ability to stave off a shutdown, negotiated a bill late Tuesday night that funds the government until Nov. 17 and includes $12 billion in aid and disaster relief for Ukraine. It’s expected to be voted on by the end of the week before being sent over to the House, and is intended to buy lawmakers more time to hash out a longer-term deal, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said. But, according to Punchbowl News, McCarthy said in a closed-door meeting on Wednesday morning that he wouldn’t take up a bill that includes Ukraine funding but no border security measures. “I don’t see the support in the House,” he reportedly said. Aid for Ukraine has been one of several sticking points for ultraconservative hardliners in the House who have repeatedly sabotaged McCarthy’s efforts to get spending bills passed.
Fred C. Dobbs says:

September 28, 2023 at 8:41 am

Vulnerable Republicans Try to Head Off Blame for Shutdown

NY Times – Sep 28

Some mainstream House Republicans representing districts won by President Biden have explored a bipartisan stopgap measure as right-wing lawmakers push Congress toward a shutdown.

… vulnerable Republicans have explored working with Democrats to keep the government open. A bipartisan group introduced a bill Wednesday to stave off a shutdown, though it faces steep hurdles to receive a vote on the floor without Mr. McCarthy’s support. …

… Mainstream Republicans have made clear their frustration with their hard-line counterparts, whose opposition to a stopgap measure has placed them in a challenging position. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  September 28, 2023 at 8:45 am
  
  The Republicans Driving Congress Toward a Shutdown
  
  NY Times – Sep 27
  
  With a Sept. 30 deadline looming, hard-right House Republicans have formed a wall of opposition to a temporary measure to fund the government.
  
  Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday was toiling to build Republican support for a long-shot bid to avert a shutdown, floating a bill that would keep government funding flowing at vastly reduced levels while imposing stringent immigration restrictions demanded by conservatives.
  
  The proposal stands little chance in the Democrat-controlled Senate. But Mr. McCarthy’s more immediate problem is in his own chamber, where the math is not in his favor.
  
  Already, at least 10 hard-right lawmakers have declared they will not vote for any stopgap measure under any circumstances, because they are opposed to funding the government — even temporarily — with a single up-or-down vote.
  
  Their opposition effectively closes off Mr. McCarthy’s simplest escape hatch to avoid a government shutdown on Sunday. With Democrats sure to oppose the spending cuts and border restrictions, he can afford to lose no more than four Republicans if all members show up and vote. And turning to Democrats for help would put his speakership at risk. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    September 28, 2023 at 8:47 am
    
    Stalemated on any real action to keep the government open, House Republicans instead spent Wednesday working to appease the hard right by adding a litany of arch-conservative amendments to four individual spending bills they are trying to push through. The amendments include a proposal that would reduce the salary of Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, the first Black man to hold the post, to $1.
    
    The additions are likely to make passing those bills — which are doomed in the Senate anyway — even more difficult. …
    - Fred C. Dobbs says:
      
      September 28, 2023 at 8:53 am
      
      … Here are the House Republicans who are opposing a temporary spending measure, known on Capitol Hill as a continuing resolution or “C.R.”
      
      Matt Gaetz of Florida
      
      Tim Burchett of Tennessee
      
      Anna Paulina Luna of Florida
      
      Eli Crane of Arizona
      
      Andy Ogles of Tennessee
      
      Matt Rosendale of Montana
      
      Andy Biggs of Arizona
      
      Dan Bishop of North Carolina
      
      Wesley Hunt of Texas
      
      Cory Mills of Florida