AB: I am cheating and giving you the close to the last line in NDd’s report. You really should read NDd’s report in its entirety. A three minute read? “this month’s report continues to reflect a consumer economy that is doing very well.” December 2023 personal income and spending: Goldilocks is in the house UPDATED […]

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested  – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and […]

Scenes from the jobs report 2: the unemployment rate and consumption: weak, but not recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at some employment metrics from Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s look at un- (and under-) employment. Every Thursday I repeat the mantra that jobless claims lead the unemployment rate. Here are both […]

Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”  – by New Deal democrat We’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims for the last week of December declined -18,000 to 202,000, the lowest since October. More importantly, the 4-week average declined -4,750 to 207,750, […]

Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains  – by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention – and should have mentioned as to jobless claims – that we are in that part of the year where seasonality often wreaks havoc, so outsized gains or losses should be taken […]

What is interesting about NDd’s latest is his identifying manufacturing playing “a much smaller role in the total US economy now than it used to in the decades after WW2.” He identifies another factor occurring before the start of a recession. It has become increasingly necessary for spending on services to falter as well. Real […]

On a YoY basis manufacturing is the star of the show. But note from the historical graph that residential construction previously has turned down first, with manufacturing and other non-residential construction lagging (likely because of long lead times and the extended duration of completing projects). A big increase holds up construction spending in October; and […]