Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”
Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”
– by New Deal democrat
We’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off.
Initial jobless claims for the last week of December declined -18,000 to 202,000, the lowest since October. More importantly, the 4-week average declined -4,750 to 207,750, the lowest since last January. With the usual one-week delay, continuing claims declined -31,000 to 1.855 million (since FRED glitched this morning, entering the data for “December 20*24*, I’m not including a graph at this point).
On a YoY% basis, initial claims were down -1.9%, and the more important 4-week average was down -0.7%. Continuing claims were up 12.4%, which nevertheless was the lowest increase since the end of last March.
For purposes of forecasting the effect on the “Sahm rule” measure of the unemployment rate, the entire month of December averaged 210,400 claims, 200 fewer than December 2022, or -0.1% YoY. Needless to say, this does not suggest the “Sahm rule” is going to be triggered anytime soon.
[Note: if FRED fixes its glitch, I will update with better graphs later]
Initial claims, Expansion, and Employment, Angry Bear, by New Deal democrat
US Labor Market Ends Year With a Bang, Adding 216,000 Jobs
NY Times – just in
The December data surpassed the predictions of economists, and buoyed expectations of what has been called a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
The labor market showed continued resiliency in December, with employers adding 216,000 jobs last month, a sign that economic growth remains vigorous.
Brisk Wage Gains in December Could Keep the Fed Watchful
NY Times – just in
Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 4.1 percent compared to a year earlier. That was faster than economists expected.
Inside The Catastrophic Jobs Report: Record 1.5 Million Crash In Full-Time Jobs, Multiple Jobholders Soar To Record, Native Born Workers Plunge And Much More
I see the economy continues to hum along. While many were predicting a Fed induced recession in 2023, you may recall (or check my AB comments from several months ago) I said the increase in interest rates would have the unintended or overlooked consequence of increasing government spending in the form of interest payments to the private sector. Unless offset by a tax increase this has the effect of adding hundreds of billions of dollars in income to the private sector (government stimulus), and that doesn’t include second and third order spending. I also said inflation would continue to hang around; again from the unintended consequences of increased demand as a result of the increased income, also higher interest rates being an added cost to businesses which get passed along to consumers. The higher interest rates can also cause businesses to not invest in greater productive capacity as the rate of return is not worth it. This could reduce the supply of goods and services causing inflation to hang around.
@Mark,
What inflation?
https://jabberwocking.com/inflation-in-goods-and-services/
The People’s Inflation Is Still a Big Problem
For many Americans, the word describes the struggle to make ends meet, not just the change in consumer prices.
Bloomberg – January 2, 2024
Will America’s Good News on Inflation Last?
NY Times – Jan 3
One of the biggest economic surprises of 2023 was how quickly inflation faded. A dig into the details offers hints at whether it will last into 2024.
@Fred,
So apart from the clickbait headline, what inflation?
It’s a somewhat subjective problem. Previous, recent inflation pulled a lot of prices up, particularly at the supermarkets. Declining inflation doesn’t bring those prices down. So be it. (Some) people are not going to vote for Joe Biden because of this. (I sure will.)
The only link here is the one to Jabberwocking, which I didn’t click.
Fred:
All article links work properly.
@Fred,
So inflation is just a subjective feeling, not defined by any quantitative metric? Who knew?
I don’t know any other way to put it.
There’s less inflation now then there was. Prices lately have not been increasing as they were. But they are still pretty high, so people are experiencing the effects of inflation & they don’t much like it.
They’re looking for someone to blame. Or they’re listening to the Former President. Can we blame him, just because he reduced the guv’mints revenue soooo much? Or do we blame the Dems for not cutting expenses just because revenue went down so much.
There are no links in my posts in this thread since noon or so.
None that I could find or see anyway.
I tend to get fewer complaints when I don’t post links.
Of course don’t forget about rents. Many people want to exclude this in inflation metrics, but people still have to factor it into their costs of living. I know I was questioned about this because it was thought interest was a fixed cost for landlords on existing properties. But many property investors opt for variable rate loans because they are typically at lower rates. This “short sighted” business model came back to bite them in the a$$. And they pass this cost on to their tenants. This is why people are still not happy about the inflation issue.