Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Are Real Interest Rates Restrictive?

 – by New Deal democrat Over the weekend Harvard econ professor Jason Furman suggested that the Fed funds rate is not very restrictive: “As inflation has come down the real Federal funds rate has risen and is now the most restrictive it has been this cycle, a point that Austin Goolsbee has emphasized a number of times […]

Arguments from evidence

Kevin Drum pushes back on the WSJ claim that household debt is a problem in America, and Kevin brings the receipts: “. . . debt as a percent of disposable income . . . is currently lower than it was at the end of 2019 (9.8% vs. 10%). “. . . household debt as a […]

Why Consumption Taxes (VATs) are Insanely Regressive

Progressives and social democrats should be fighting them tooth and nail, not blithely embracing them. by Steve Roth Originally Posted at Wealth Economics The spreadsheet behind the tables and graphs here is available on request. Drop me a line in the comments or elsewhere. Following the community of Socks (🧦s) or “social democrats” out there […]

Months’ Supply of Multi-Family Housing under Construction Decreasing. What is the cure?

Building Badly Needed Muti-Family Housing What is holding back more building of badly needed muti-family housing is the Fed Rate. The effort of course is to bring down inflation. As you read, I think you will discover the effort by the Fed is not achieving the goal it wishes to achieve. Indeed, its efforts to […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators July 15 – 19 2024

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While several of the monthly updates I’ve discussed here in the past week have tiptoed in the direction of yellow caution flags, that’s not apparent at all in the high frequency data that is updated every week, much of which comes from […]

Retail Shoplifting

I believe I have seen one boy walk out of a Frys with something in his arms. He did not pass through the cashier line but waited for the gates to open to the store and walked through the opposite way. Did the need whatever he had? I don’t know. The only thing this false […]

Increasing Jobless Claims Resulting from Seasonality?

Jobless claims join other data series inching in the direction of yellow caution territory – by New Deal democrat Ever since jobless claims started higher in May, I’ve cautioned that I suspected that unresolved seasonality may be at play. We are now at the point where claims were at their low points for all last […]