Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative – by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than most quarters in the past several years, as shown below: Although not shown (due to the huge […]
Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because […]
Jobless claims continue recent strong streak Programming note: I’ll put up separate posts on durable goods orders, real manufacturing and trade sales, and the Q4 GDP reports later. Initial jobless claims have been the best performing – and perhaps only positive – element of the short leading indicators in the past few months. And that […]
Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative – by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give […]
It has taken a bit of time after Christmas to get back into the swing of things. A week during Christmas while in Breckenridge, I spent it in bed due to Attitude Altitude sickness. One night I was looking at the vertical wood slats on the wall which appeared to be populated with numbers similar […]
Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators? – by New Deal democrat This week is one of those where almost all of the important data is crammed into one day – in this case, Thursday, when Q4 GDP, initial claims, real manufacturng and trade sales, durable goods orders, […]
Extending Capital to Nature, Reducing Nature to Capital The Biden administration has announced it is inaugurating a program to incorporate the value of natural resources and ecological services into national income accounts. The New York Times article reporting this development predictably portrays the response as divided between two camps: on the one side are environmentalists, who think […]
Can ChatGPT run a business? Color me very skeptical. This is a shockingly easy question, but I would not have predicted that ChatGPT would get it right, given its limited ability to do math and think logically. So, I am updating my assessment of ChatGPT (slightly) in a favorable direction. Still, before we get too […]
How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mastodon that largely relied on the following graph: concluding that “[A]t this point the burden of proof lies on […]
Weekly Indicators for January 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this yesterday, so here you go today . . . My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then you get a contratrend week, when a bunch of metrics move in the opposite direction […]