My “Weekly Indicators” post is up. The high frequency data continues to confirm my Big Picture outlook that after a near-miss or possible “mini-recession” late last year, the economy is rebounding. In particular, the YoY improvements, already Booming, in consumer spending are accelerating even more. Some of this is probably the wealth effect from stock portfolios, […]
Rail Passengers Association | Substack Bit of an Introduction. Having ridden in trains in other countries, I can see where having similar passenger rail services would benefit the United States. Rather than traveling by air, one could take a trip by passenger rail to another state several hundred miles away and arrive in better condition […]
– by New Deal democrat As we come to the end of the week after the payrolls report, when typically, almost nothing is reported, I wanted to follow up on several posts I wrote last week: one, revisiting the configuration of long leading indicators, and second, Republics are very durable unless and until they are […]
NATIONAL: How much more are ACA enrollees *really* paying this year due to Trump/GOP policies? ACA Signups, Charles Gaba Partial post taken from; “How much more are ACA enrollees *really* paying this year due to Trump/GOP policies?” Charles Gaba @ ACA Signups. Nationally, on average, net ACA premiums have jumped by 58% this year vs. last, from […]
Bit of Robert Reich running the numbers on Crypto Memecoin for 2025. Trump came out ahead and everyone else lost. Care to buy another bottle of “Doctor Good” from Tr__p. It is kind of hard to understand how a president of future president could hoodwink his constituents. But he did. “‘Once a crypto skeptic, Mr. […]
4 years and counting since the release of AI upon the public. The author (Paul) touches upon this initially than goes forward discussing things other than technology change. A welcome relief? I am not sure. The reader has to determine such. “AI’s ubiquity, its economic impact remains unclear. We don’t yet know what it will […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. In addition to being 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting system (the other 1/2 being stock prices), they have a 60 year history of being a good short leading indicator. [Later this morning we’ll get existing home sales, and I’ll […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, pointing out that they have shown a rebound this year. Today let’s take a brief look at the regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes. Below are the manufacturing and services indexes, averaged over the four Fed districts whose […]
– by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment report for June. To cut to the chase, this is of a piece of my “Big Picture” narrative from Friday in which I wrote that most of the signals suggest and economy coming […]
Dean is discussing Fees being charged to people. On the other side is insurance costs. Car insurance took a jump this year and we barely drive 5000 miles a year. Homeowner’s insurance is another cost. If you have less than a 20% down mortgage? More likely than not, there will be a mortgage insurance tied […]