Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Poised for progress

This quote has a number of meaning perhaps.  Jay offers one in the form of a question…and more from Bill Black in an interview: The real news BARACK OBAMA, U.S. PRESIDENT: Thanks to the grit and determination of the American people, we’ve cleared away the rubble of the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes. So […]

The Most Important Set of Graphics You’ll Find in a BIS Speech

I’m still in catch-up mode, but I keep coming back to this presentation (PDF)—four times now. It’s a speech by BoJ member Masaaki Shirakawa in Tokyo on the 22nd of December last year to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation), entitled “Globalization and population aging – challenges facing Japan.” Go through […]

This Is What You Get When Policy Makers Become Complacent

By Rebecca Wilder  This Is What You Get When Policy Makers Become Complacent The prospects for domestic demand in the US are not bright. The labor market barely generates jobs and fiscal policy is a drag. Americans are consuming; but there’s unlikely sufficient nominal income growth to stabilize consumption expenditure growth at current levels. We’ve […]

PSA: Mark Thoma, Schlesinger and Jack Otter Answer Questions about the Economy at 2:00pm today (EDT)

From my email (with formatting lost): Ask the Experts: What’s Next for the Economy? It’s a big week for the American economy. President Obama announced his plans to reduce the deficit on Monday, and Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve announces its new plan to boost growth. Do these proposals make sense? And what do they […]

US economy in August: moving sideways

With the (roughly) 11% decline in US equities year-to-date, talk of a US recession has resurfaced. Through mid August, the high frequency economic indicators point to further weakness, rather than a double dip. In my view, whether or not the US is IN a recession – defined as the coincident variables followed by the NBER […]

The US economy: July’s not looking any better

Next week the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its estimate of Q2 US GDP growth. Of 69 economists polled, the bloomberg consensus is that the US economy grew at a 1.8% annualized rate spanning the months of April to June over January to March. In all, this quarterly growth rate implies just 1.9% annualized […]

State and local governments should be listed as a primary risk to the US outlook

I don’t see why the aggregate state funding gap is not numero uno on the ‘risks’ to the US outlook (I usually hear oil, Europe, China, etc., in my line of work). According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the State budget gap is not expected to clear at least through 2013. From […]

Consumption and compensation: explicit and implicit wealth effects in finance

Readers of this blog know that I am in finance, specifically global fixed income. This blog post covers wealth effects in the financial industry, which is a relatively dominant share of total US compensation, 7.3% in 2009 and likely higher now (data are truncated at 2009). My view is that economists underestimate the wealth effects […]

Who cares about the unemployed…

…it seems that way, at least, when I listen to much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington. But it’s not just Washington, it’s Wall Street, too. In my line of work, finance, market participants grapple with the monthly economic data flow, eyeing each release as if it’s telling a new story about the current […]