Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The trend in US corporate profits is what you think it is

by Rebecca Wilder The trend in US corporate profits is what you think it is In my research for an article about the cross section of national income, I ran across this piece in Forbes by Tim Worstall. In this article, he uses proprietary Bloomberg and WSJ data for 2012 corporate offshore cash holdings to assess […]

Chart for the day: Growing on Imports

by Rebecca Wilder Chart for the day: Growing on Imports Or should I say barely contracting on imports. In the traditional sense, growth in imports does not make a whole lot of sense. Normal economies import and export things, such that statistical agencies subtract the dollar amount of things that are made in other economies but […]

Follow up to yesterday’s post: Euro area consumption and Investment in Q2 2013

by Rebecca Wilder  Follow up to yesterday’s post: Euro area consumption and Investment in Q2 2013 Yesterday I illustrated the unsustainable accounting growth engine of imports occurring in the euro area (EA). Today I’ll present more of a forward looking analysis on private domestic demand within the euro area: consumption and investment. If current levels of […]

Unhealthy developments across the euro area labour market

by Rebecca Wilder Unhealthy developments across the euro area labour market There are many ways to define rebalancing within the euro area: relative prices, trade, productivity, unit labor costs, etc. I’d argue that one could see it in the employment data as well, although it will take a long time to work its way through. Basically, […]

Unemployment Rates Across the Euro Area – Tough Times in Key Markets

by Rebecca Wilder Unemployment Rates Across the Euro Area – Tough Times in Key Markets Today Eurostat released its unemployment rate figures for the month of August. The Euro area unemployment rate held firm at 11.4% for the third consecutive month. Spain still has the highest unemployment rate in the euro area, 25.1%, and Greece […]

Policy transmission mechanism: Broken in Italy, better in Spain

by Rebecca Wilder Policy transmission mechanism: Broken in Italy, better in SpainYesterday, the Financial Times reported that borrowing costs for small businesses in the periphery were rising relative to the core using the ECB’s release of July MFI interest rate data. I highlighted this point exactly on August 1 following Draghi’s now famous London speech, […]

Dutch Domestic Demand Dragging Real Home Values

by Rebecca Wilder Dutch Domestic Demand Dragging Real Home Values Today Statistics Netherlands (CBS) warned ”House Prices Nosedive“. Prices of existing owner-occupied dwellings sold in July 2012 were on average 8.0 percent down from July 2011. This is the most substantial price drop since the price index of existing residential property was first recorded in […]

The NY Times Is Misleading. And Who Is Correct? Eurostat or China Customs?

The NY Times Is Misleading. And Who Is Correct? Eurostat or China Customs? by Rebecca Wilder The NY Times reports quite a dire situation as regards the slump in the value of Chinese exports to the European Union in July: Data published this month showed that China’s exports to the European Union had sunk 16.2 percent […]

It’s the Exchange Rate, Stupid

by Rebecca Wilder It’s the Exchange Rate, Stupid Eurostat released trade figures today, where the trade balance (exports less imports) surged €3.7 bn in the month of June (link to the .pdf release). The current figures imply a 2012 annualized trade balance of €66.9 bn, which is a meaningful boost to the -€7.4 bn deficit […]