Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The German euro is undervalued

I keep telling people that the German euro is undervalued, but some folks seem not to believe me. (See the comments section from this post last year for an example.) But this is a really big deal. The dominant narrative about the eurozone crisis is that fiscally irresponsible countries like Greece were bringing the once-proud […]

Chart for the day: Growing on Imports

by Rebecca Wilder Chart for the day: Growing on Imports Or should I say barely contracting on imports. In the traditional sense, growth in imports does not make a whole lot of sense. Normal economies import and export things, such that statistical agencies subtract the dollar amount of things that are made in other economies but […]

Follow up to yesterday’s post: Euro area consumption and Investment in Q2 2013

by Rebecca Wilder  Follow up to yesterday’s post: Euro area consumption and Investment in Q2 2013 Yesterday I illustrated the unsustainable accounting growth engine of imports occurring in the euro area (EA). Today I’ll present more of a forward looking analysis on private domestic demand within the euro area: consumption and investment. If current levels of […]

Unhealthy developments across the euro area labour market

by Rebecca Wilder Unhealthy developments across the euro area labour market There are many ways to define rebalancing within the euro area: relative prices, trade, productivity, unit labor costs, etc. I’d argue that one could see it in the employment data as well, although it will take a long time to work its way through. Basically, […]

Unemployment Rates Across the Euro Area – Tough Times in Key Markets

by Rebecca Wilder Unemployment Rates Across the Euro Area – Tough Times in Key Markets Today Eurostat released its unemployment rate figures for the month of August. The Euro area unemployment rate held firm at 11.4% for the third consecutive month. Spain still has the highest unemployment rate in the euro area, 25.1%, and Greece […]

It’s the Exchange Rate, Stupid

by Rebecca Wilder It’s the Exchange Rate, Stupid Eurostat released trade figures today, where the trade balance (exports less imports) surged €3.7 bn in the month of June (link to the .pdf release). The current figures imply a 2012 annualized trade balance of €66.9 bn, which is a meaningful boost to the -€7.4 bn deficit […]

Euro Area Retail Sales Portend Negative Quarter of Real Consumption

Euro Area Retail Sales Portend Negative Quarter of Real Consumption by Rebecca Wilder Today Eurostat released its June estimate of real retail sales for the Euro area. On a month/month basis, real retail sales increased at a rate of 0.1%. However, on a trended basis, the 3-month/3-month average growth rate was down 0.7% in the […]

Euro area troubles, banks, and sovereign debt connections

Economist Mark Blyth talks on Europe and rescuing the banks… See 35 minutes in on context for LIBOR troubles. (70% of the special investment vehicles designed to pump and dump mortgages belong to European not American banks … Euro banks listed their periphery debt as Tier One Capital under Basel.)

Euro Area Crisis Hits Confidence in the Core

by Rebecca Wilder Euro Area Crisis Hits Confidence in the Core France’s INSEE business confidence, Germany’s Ifo business climate, and theNational Bank of Belgium’s business survey demonstrate ongoing infection as the Euro area debt crisis hits business expectations in the core. Through July, business confidence in Germany and France continued to slide while that in […]

Euro Area Imbalances Are a Symptom of the Broader Global Imbalances

by Rebecca Wilder Euro Area Imbalances Are a Symptom of the Broader Global Imbalances Every year I travel to Germany to visit my in-laws, which is where I am now. Given the extra time on my hands, I’ve now mulled over a June 2012 NY Times opinion piece by Gunnar Beck. Beck displays an interesting […]