There is still a lot of headline material concerning the role of guns in our lives, and a lot of anecdotal material and thoughts abound. Also I seem to note an increase in the reporting of police in Lakewood, Washington and firemen in Webster, NY murders by gun makes the news as well. We are […]
Via Barry Rithotz at The Big Picture comes Bruce Bartlett’s take on : Bruce Bartlett and the dangers of Republican know-nothingism Bruce Bartlett goes off on some of the denialist behavior from the GOP. Bartlett writes: When a study doesn’t support their dogma, the GOP censors it: Nonpartisan Tax Report Withdrawn After G.O.P. Protest Original study […]
With the (roughly) 11% decline in US equities year-to-date, talk of a US recession has resurfaced. Through mid August, the high frequency economic indicators point to further weakness, rather than a double dip. In my view, whether or not the US is IN a recession – defined as the coincident variables followed by the NBER […]
Bureau of Economic Analysis today reported that real gross domestic product in the US increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011. This (newly revised – see below) acceleration in real GDP was driven primarily by a slowdown in import demand, stronger federal spending, and a pickup in non-residential fixed […]
Next week the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its estimate of Q2 US GDP growth. Of 69 economists polled, the bloomberg consensus is that the US economy grew at a 1.8% annualized rate spanning the months of April to June over January to March. In all, this quarterly growth rate implies just 1.9% annualized […]
It’s now two years after the end of the Great Recession, and the unemployment rate has ticked downward just 9 pps (percentage points) since its 10.1% peak. Pundits call this an expansion since GDP has fully retraced its recession losses; but the unemployment rate tells a very different story. (click to enlarge) The chart illustrates […]
I’ll make this quick, since I’m going to get in trouble for writing on a national holiday. But the pace of annual jobs growth is too slow to generate strong wage and salary income. Much empirical research has been dedicated to the estimation of consumption functions, generally finding that labor income is the primary driver […]
There are reasons to expect the second half of the year to be be stronger than the first. Here are two: (1) the rebound in industrial activity following supply chain disruptions, and (2) possible impetus to investment spending coming from the depreciation allowance that expires this year. These factors, though, are just dressing up what […]
Yesterday I addressed the weak high-frequency indicators, specifically with respect to leading indicators of investment spending on equipment and software (durable goods). I argued that Q2 has not started off well, given that the real core orders for capital goods are down compared to the January to March average. The BEA reported that Q1 2011 […]
They keep calling it a ‘soft patch’ in my business; but when’s the data going to show otherwise? This soft patch is persistent, and durable goods orders confirm it into Q2 2011. Note: The ‘all manufacturing’ orders Y/Y growth rate are available through March only in Datastream for the chart above; the nondefense capital goods […]