Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

First Quarter GDP Growth at 1.6 Percent

by Dean Baker Commerce Department reported that GDP grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter, some-what lower than had generally been predicted. However, the headline number was held down by slow inventory accumulation, which subtracted 0.35 percentage points from growth, and a big rise in the trade deficit, which lowered growth […]

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead

Q2 GDP indicates continued good expansion now, but more storm clouds gathered ahead  – by New Deal democrat Now let’s deal with this morning’s big news: real GDP improved at a perfectly respectable 0.6% over the first Quarter of this year: This works out to a 2.4% annualized rate. Although it continues the slowdown from […]

Leading components of Q1 GDP paint a mixed picture

Leading components of Q1 GDP paint a mixed picture – by New Deal democrat As you probably already know, real GDP increased 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in Q1. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the economy improved throughout the period. The median GDP for the quarter where post WW2 recessions have begun was […]

First comments on Q2 GDP, no Recession Yet

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)  – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even […]

1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Economy Shrunk at a 1.6% Rate

RJS: MarketWatch 666 Summary: modest revision. The internals were revised as much as I’ve ever seen. PCE growth from 3.1% to 1.8%, real gross private domestic investment growth from 0.5% to 5.0%. Mostly due to greater inventories. Those 1st quarter inventories set up the 2nd quarter for a fall. ~~~~~~~ 1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Our Economy Shrunk […]

GDP Shrunk, Record Trade Deficit, and Slower Growth of Inventories

RJS, MarketWatch 666 1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than […]

January Trade Deficit up 9.4% – Record High, December deficit up

RJS, MarketWatch 666, including estimates on the hit to GDP . . . the December deficit was revised up to what would have been a record high at the same time. US Trade Deficit Rose 9.4% to a Record High in January After December Deficit Revised Higher Our trade deficit rose 9.4% in January, as […]

4th Qtr GDP Revised, Growth at 7.0% – Unprecedented Revisions to Component Deflators

RJS, MarketWatch 666 Here I (run75441) am being lectured by the author, RJS. “last week you asked me to write something explaining how & why the GDP deflators were revised. So I did, expanding the paragraph I was going to write on it to six, and included it as an addendum to my usual reporting […]

3rd quarter GDP Estimate: Personal Income, Outlays, Construction

August Personal Income up 0.2%; 2 Months PCE Would Subtract 0.07 Percentage Points from Q3 GDP, Blogger and Commenter RJS reports at MarketWatch 666 The August report Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 3rd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of […]