Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

First comments on Q2 GDP, no Recession Yet

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)  – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago, I wrote: “yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession…. But the big culprits were non-core items. Personal consumption expenditures, even […]

1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Economy Shrunk at a 1.6% Rate

RJS: MarketWatch 666 Summary: modest revision. The internals were revised as much as I’ve ever seen. PCE growth from 3.1% to 1.8%, real gross private domestic investment growth from 0.5% to 5.0%. Mostly due to greater inventories. Those 1st quarter inventories set up the 2nd quarter for a fall. ~~~~~~~ 1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Our Economy Shrunk […]

GDP Shrunk, Record Trade Deficit, and Slower Growth of Inventories

RJS, MarketWatch 666 1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than […]

January Trade Deficit up 9.4% – Record High, December deficit up

RJS, MarketWatch 666, including estimates on the hit to GDP . . . the December deficit was revised up to what would have been a record high at the same time. US Trade Deficit Rose 9.4% to a Record High in January After December Deficit Revised Higher Our trade deficit rose 9.4% in January, as […]

4th Qtr GDP Revised, Growth at 7.0% – Unprecedented Revisions to Component Deflators

RJS, MarketWatch 666 Here I (run75441) am being lectured by the author, RJS. “last week you asked me to write something explaining how & why the GDP deflators were revised. So I did, expanding the paragraph I was going to write on it to six, and included it as an addendum to my usual reporting […]

3rd quarter GDP Estimate: Personal Income, Outlays, Construction

August Personal Income up 0.2%; 2 Months PCE Would Subtract 0.07 Percentage Points from Q3 GDP, Blogger and Commenter RJS reports at MarketWatch 666 The August report Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 3rd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of […]

GDP Gap Stuck at 6%

Pro Growth Liberal points us to this interpretation of new economic data: GDP Gap Stuck at 6% Dean Baker gets it right with respect to the latest news on GDP: A sharp drop in government spending, heavily concentrated in defense, coupled with a decline in inventories caused GDP to shrink at a 0.1 percent rate […]

GDP Growth Caused By Tax Cuts Has Never Happened

Mike’s post here got me thinking.  I’ll telegraph my conclusion.  He dramatically understated his case. You can see the long range view of nominal and inflation adjusted GPD growth in Graph 1 of FRED quarterly YoY percent change data. Graph 1 YoY growth Nominal and Inflation Adjusted GDP Nominal GDP Growth was in a secular […]

Debt and Growth

Art at The New Arthurian Economics and I are looking at the relationship between debt and economic growth.  Art started with an observation of two FRED series, total credit market debt owed (TCMDO) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP,  nominal or GDPC1, inflation adjusted – take your pick.) Graph 1, from FRED, shows these data series.  […]

Why Spending/GDP is a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Metric For Judging Obama’s Performance

A post like this really shouldn’t be necessary, but part of the right wing canard that Obama has been a profligate spender is based on spending as a percentage of GDP. It looks like this – Graph 1. Graph 1.  Fed Expenditures/GDP Sure enough, by the end of Clinton’s term the ratio had fallen from […]