Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Japanese Q3 2010 GDP growth hit it out of the ballpark but set to fall flat next quarter

The Japanese economy grew 3.9% at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate in Q3 2010 and over 2X the pace in Q2 2010 (data here). According to Bloomberg, the headwinds to Q4 growth are household consumption and the yen: Consumption, accounting for about 60 percent of GDP, led the gain as households stepped up purchases of fuel-efficient […]

Ending Stimulus and the Shape of the Recovery

by Tom Bozzo Brad DeLong observes that the FY2011 budget features “big, very big” tightening on the revenue and spending sides (2.5% of GDP “from 2010 to 2011”) for the prevailing labor market conditions. DeLong wants his “morning in America” (don’t we all?), and is understandably alarmed at the pessimistic forecast of the rate of […]

Government Site to Check

Mish sends us to “Track the Money,” recovery.gov’s breakdown of where funds have been sent and spent. He’s not happy, but I suspect he’s suffering the Jared Bernstein Problem: only looking at one side of the equation. But—and this is the key “but”—the reason it is right to do that is that ARRA money has […]

More on Dubner and Levitt II

It has long been a standard claim of economics—iirc, Robert Lucas was the first to say it aloud, though it may have been Gary Becker*—that a man who marries his housekeeper lowers GDP. Apparently, Dubner and Levitt have taken this claim—along with their Rick James title**—to heart. Echidne has the details. A short sample: There […]

Debt fueled consumption

rdan Rebecca Wilder will begin writing as a Bear soon. Meanwhile, she maintains her own blog NEWSNECONOMICS. Here is an example of an Aug. 19,2009 post, which I am cross posting today, and a follow up post here. There were several questions raised, but I think it an interesting notion. I own an old Malibu […]

Another Reason to Avoid Handwringing Over the Stimulus Spending

Tom Bozzo was just looking at this picture and thought it was worth sharing, a propos of recent postings on the prospective pace of stimulus expenditures: (click to embiggen) This shows subsequent revisions to the CBO’s real GDP forecasts. Barring an exceptionally rapid recovery, GDP looks to be materially below potential output in 2011 (i.e. […]

The Alpha and the Omega of mid-2007

Sometimes, Blog Posts Write Themselves: Cleaning up a hard drive of old files, I ran across these two articles from the middle of last year. First, the WSJ, arbiter of business sanity and purveyor of a positive meme whenever one is to be found, on 28 July 2007—nine months after the general supply of securitizable […]

What do we want our economy to do? Misuse of GDP

by Divorced one like Bush(successfully I might add) I had the following quotes sitting around for awhile. Like May of 07. Being that we have a “crisis” with our economy (I have a hard time with the word crisis being used, it implies suddenness, unseen), a new governing philosophy in place and we really, really, […]