by Mike Kimel The Historical Relationship Between the Economy and the S&P 500, Part 1 This post is the first in a series on the historical relationship between the economy and the stock market. Data used in this post is the adjusted close of the S&P 500 going back to 1950 and quarterly nominal GDP […]
There are two measures of income: the spending side (Gross Domestic Product, or GDP) and the income side (Gross Domestic Income, GDI). I’d like to see what GDI is telling us about the Y/Y recovery, since it’s a better predictor of turning points, according to FRB economist Jeremy J. Nalewaik. The chart illustrates the contribution […]
One of the best rules in mathematics is that, to determine the value of all the variables, you need only as many distinct equations as you have variables. (previous sentence edited for clarity.) So let’s combine a couple of recent articles (h/t Mark Thoma for the first, Digby for the second.) Richard Florida finds three […]
Econospeak’s Peter Dorman has an excellent debate going on with Sandwichman and cian, among others, about using GDP as a main measure of a healthy economy, the components of growing the economy, and the state of mainstream political economic discourse. We have touched on related issues on Angry Bear. Our own Rusty puts the question […]
The Japanese economy grew 3.9% at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate in Q3 2010 and over 2X the pace in Q2 2010 (data here). According to Bloomberg, the headwinds to Q4 growth are household consumption and the yen: Consumption, accounting for about 60 percent of GDP, led the gain as households stepped up purchases of fuel-efficient […]
Is it really Good News that changes in Real Private Inventories were 3.4% of that 5.7% Q-on-Q GDP in Q4? (h/t Alea’s Twitter feed) Most reasonable assumption: firms overproduced, relative to actual buying, in anticipation of the Xmas season. Maybe more later.
Mish sends us to “Track the Money,” recovery.gov’s breakdown of where funds have been sent and spent. He’s not happy, but I suspect he’s suffering the Jared Bernstein Problem: only looking at one side of the equation. But—and this is the key “but”—the reason it is right to do that is that ARRA money has […]
It has long been a standard claim of economics—iirc, Robert Lucas was the first to say it aloud, though it may have been Gary Becker*—that a man who marries his housekeeper lowers GDP. Apparently, Dubner and Levitt have taken this claim—along with their Rick James title**—to heart. Echidne has the details. A short sample: There […]
rdan Rebecca Wilder will begin writing as a Bear soon. Meanwhile, she maintains her own blog NEWSNECONOMICS. Here is an example of an Aug. 19,2009 post, which I am cross posting today, and a follow up post here. There were several questions raised, but I think it an interesting notion. I own an old Malibu […]
If you need to know why we need government (G) spending, consider that there is no investment (I), and the plight of the consumer is summarized here: The rest is basic algebra.