Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data – by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha, looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequency indicators I track weekly as to consumption and employment. Click over and read the whole article, but here is a little taste: […]
—We study history in order to better understand what is going on now, to be better able to look into the future. — The Great Depression was a manifestation of the utter and complete failure of capitalism. Social Security, unemployment, and Welfare were implicit admissions of this failure. Capitalism had spectacularly failed to provide for […]
Here are reminders of Angry Bear posts and contrbutor thinking on “Wealth, debt,and consumption”. Wealth versus income Usually my articles present facts and data and try to drive down to a conclusion. This time, I’m going to drive down to a couple of questions. Income and consumption jazzbumba Part 1…spending as a fraction of net […]
Correlations and Slopes Over Time In Part 1, we looked at the ratio of consumption spending to net worth, and how it changed over time. This time we’ll look at the correlation between net worth and consumption. Here is the big picture: personal consumption expenditures (FRED Series PCE) plotted against Net Worth (FRED series TNWBSHNO) […]
Part 1 – Spending as a fraction of Net Worth Tim Duy weighed in on the output gap debate – not my topic, but he presented this chart of net worth as a percentage of GDP. Graph 1 Net worth as a Percentage of GDP That got me thinking again about the issue of whether […]
This is another look at the idea I put forth here, that – contra the standard economic idea that consumption depends on wealth – I believe that consumption depends on income. It’s worth stressing that wealth and income are not independent variables. Wealth is the accumulation of unspent income plus returns generated on that wealth […]
By Rebecca Wilder This Is What You Get When Policy Makers Become Complacent The prospects for domestic demand in the US are not bright. The labor market barely generates jobs and fiscal policy is a drag. Americans are consuming; but there’s unlikely sufficient nominal income growth to stabilize consumption expenditure growth at current levels. We’ve […]
Net Exports goes negative in 1973 and never recovers. One word: oil. Even the USD depreciation after the Plaza Accord (the one Martin Feldstein likes to pretend was inevitably going to happen then) can’t quite get it back to being positive. And once outsourcing industry to China hits full stride… Private Investment peaks in 2006. […]
from Mike Kimel Hi. For a project I’m working on, I need to find estimates of a private consumption multiplier. That is to say, the multiplier resulting from changes in private consumption rather than, say, from changes in gov’t spending or taxation. Any pointers? Please let me know in comments are by email (mike period […]
Yesterday the Conference Board released its measure of consumer confidence, which dropped to 44.5 in August. This brings the Conference Board measure of confidence in line with the Reuters/University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment. Bloomberg summarizes the Conference Board results. Confidence is important, since consumer spending accounts for the lion’s-share of aggregate spending. Consumer […]