Foreboding Economic Signs Coming from consumption and employment data

Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data

 – by New Deal democrat

I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha, looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequency indicators I track weekly as to consumption and employment.

Click over and read the whole article, but here is a little taste: the below is what the YoY% change in the 20-day total of payroll tax withholding has been in has been as of the first week of each month this year:

  • Jan +9.3%
  • Feb +11.6%
  • Mar +13.4%
  • Apr +12.6%
  • May +3.6%
  • June +20.7%
  • July +7.8%
  • Aug -3.4%
  • Sept +1.7%
  • Oct +3.6%

The first half of this year was, in the aggregate, terrific. And then things slowed down precipitously. Considering inflation has been over 5% YoY all year long, this chart certainly appears to indicate that, in real terms, there has been no YoY increase at all in payroll tax collections since late summer. That’s not good.

Signs and portents of an employment slowdown and a near-term recession,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog