– by New Deal democrat Although manufacturing is far less important to the US economy than it was in the decades after World War II, it is still about 25% of the total weighting; and further, it is more vulnerable to shocks than the services portion of the economy. Which means, for forecasting purposes, it […]
A preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter 2026. US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. Growth was below the market expectations of 2.3%, Consumer spending (accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity) rose at a slower pace of 1.6% in […]
Twenty years ago, Professor Edward Leamer gave an important presentation at the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting entitled “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” The current environment is putting that hypothesis to a very severe test. Because by all accounts housing has deteriorated sufficiently that a recession should already have begun months ago. In fact, the current […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ll get to housing permits and starts later this morning. But first, let me take my regular look at initial and continuing jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at jobless claims because historically they have been a very good short leading indicator for the economy. And they continue to […]
Trump appointee (2017) Jerome Powell has been relieved of his duty as the Chairman of the FED. Not sure if Trump could have fired him or not. Not sure why Jerome Powell took so much grief from Trump? Yet (or as far as I know) Powell intends to stay on the Fed Board. It will […]
– by New Deal democrat The drought of significant official economic data continues today, but this is a good time to update my forecast for the effect of the spike in gas prices on inflation, specifically for May. To reiterate, my back of the envelope calculation is to take the percent change in the price […]
1 trillion dollars cut from healthcare for tax cuts and CMS Trump causes 3 or more million people to lose healthcare insurance. Snatching government assistance away from them is just a start. In case you did not know, the 3 million consisted of children. More cuts will come as healthcare is unsubsidized. Medicaid Cuts: The […]
I’m not an investment advisor. I do have personal experience in investing going back over 40 years. I’ve been retired for nearly two years and have no regrets so far. “Rental properties carry concentrated risk, illiquidity, and management overhead…The return needs to be significantly better [than an investment elsewhere] to justify the extra complexity. Often, […]
President Donald Trump returned from the spectacle of a Chinese state visit to a less than welcoming U.S. economy . . . with the military band and garden tour in Beijing giving way to pressure over how to fix America’s escalating inflation rate. I would be curious as to what the Chinese thought of the […]
– by New Deal democrat The bond market is sending the T—-p Administration, and the US government as a whole, a message. It believes the US is in a secular inflationary trend. This is not only because T—-p’s tariffs, and his boneheaded war with Iran, are inflationary, but also because last year’s Big Budget Bust-out […]