Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Scenes of strength and weakness from the May jobs report

 – by New Deal democrat It’s the Monday after the jobs report, and as usual there is no new data today. So let’s take a look at a few of the salient trends from Friday’s report. First of all, this was the fourth good report in a row. Furthermore, it isn’t just goods producing jobs […]

Federal Debt Projections

I know Econofact is discussing various programs as being an issue. Social Security being one of them. That may be true for Social Security if the funds are not available to pay back what is owed to the Trust fund. The other issue being the decreases in taxes for upper income brackets which would have […]

New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators

Weekly Indicators for June 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat The large majority of the high frequency indicators remain positive. Interestingly, though, one of the early warning signals for credit tightening, the Chicago Fed’s Leverage Index, is now at a level that in the past has more often meant a […]

“seven times the previous annual budget and four times the typical annual budget”

All of this to keep immigrants out of the United States even though replacement rate is down and decreasing. A term I am learning from the VA as they argue with me about how I was poisoned while at Camp Lejeune is “More Likely than Not.” Moe likely than not replacement rate in the US […]

A “rail”pike should be built by the government.

Letter to Congressional Representative Seth Moulton by Sanuel Walker . . . “Just as a turnpike provides time and place utility for product and people, a railpike would also. And, just as a turnpike does not provide pick up and delivery of product and people, likewise a railpike would serve to provide transport service from […]

May jobs report: a solid positive report, with the important (likely) exception of wages

– by New Deal democrat My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. The bottom line is that the May report was the third in a row that not only confirmed that, but suggested […]

Where’s the beef?

Thanks to climate change, which the Trump Administration is actively promoting, and the Trump Administration defunding of USAID and a project dedicated to monitoring and containing New World screwworm in Central America, screwworm is back in the US after decades of successful containment. What is screwworm? “New World screwworm is a fly that lays its […]

$Trillions for Tax Breaks, etc. to the wealthy. But we Can Not Fund Social Security?

“No Unauthorized Spending: The U.S. Constitution dictates that no money can be drawn from the Treasury except through an act of appropriation. Without a funded budget, paying wages is unconstitutional.” “Office Hours: How Do We Deal with the Inevitable Loss of Good Jobs to AI?” Anthropic — the artificial intelligence company behind the chatbot Claude […]

Jobless claims virtually screaming for lower unemployment rate; is post-pandemic seasonality making a return?

– by New Deal democrat We are – maybe! – finally seeing some of the unresolved post-pandemic seasonality reasserting itself as to initial jobless claims. For the record, initial claims rose 13,000 to 225,000 last week, the highest number since early February. The four week average rose 6,500 to 214,750. With the typical one week delay, […]

The Little or No Change, Changed Little, Unchanged, Held, or Declined Employment Situation Report May 2026

In a Nut Shell? The title tells it all as to what is occurring when looking at the Household Employment release. Civilian Labor force for May increased by 83,000 over April while Not in Labor Force went up by 17,000. Unemployed dropped by 66,000. Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3%. Participation Rate remained the same at […]