Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The entire US economy is downstream of the AI buildout dam, and that dam is almost certain to fail

– by New Deal democrat I’ve been ambivalent about whether the mania for AI is a Boom or a Bubble. That’s because whether its use is transformative or, like Steve Jobs’ claims that the Segway would revolutionize transportation, not so much.  But what has become increasingly clear is that virtually the entire economy has been […]

Decreased Factory Utilization and Increasing Capacity

Factory construction has trended downward due to economic uncertainty, throughput improvements, material costs increasing, and increasing interest rates. Companies are not willing to risk investment at this time without a sound future forecast to utilize additional factory production. The surge in 2024 was driven by policies such as the CHIPS Act. Demand cooled as companies […]

Producer prices suggest 5%+ YoY CPI, and very soon

 – by New Deal democrat I just wanted to drop a brief note about this morning’s PPI report. In May headline producer prices rose 1.1% for the month (the second such increase in a row), and on a YoY basis increased 6.5%. Final demand goods prices are up 9.1% YoY, and final demand services up 4.9%: […]

More evidence for the return of post-pandemic seasonality in jobless claims

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that “we’re coming up on the one year anniversary of that change of regime, so it will be interesting to see if the negative YoY comparisons continue, or if they fade away. This week’s numbers are noteworthy in that regard, because they suggest that – maybe – […]

“What will the politicians do to hold healthcare corporations accountable for high costs?”

Commentary by Andrew Sprung at his site: xpostfactoid. Besides the other factors, I will point out, Hospital Prices Have Risen Much Faster for Private Insurance Than Medicare Since 2019 per a KFF report in May of this year. The increases “represent approximately one third of total health care spending and accounted for 40% of spending growth from 2022 to […]

May CPI is “less bad,” but bad enough to edge consumers closer to recessionary income levels

– by New Deal democrat Just as forecast by the Cleveland Fed, the CPI in May increased 0.5% – less than the increases in March and April, but still too high. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2%. The YoY% gains both also increased, to 4.2% and 2.8% respectively. to increase to […]

Existing home sales report shows a sub-optimal equilibrium with rangebound sales, prices, and inventory

 – by New Deal democrat First of all, my usual caveat: although they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, I don’t pay too much attention to existing sales because they are not nearly so important as new home sales, since the latter involve much more economic activity in the building process, plus more landscaping […]

Changing of the Guard at the FED

I did not get a chance to post this commentary about the last day for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who stepped down as the Chair. Just to be clear, he was succeeded by Kevin Warsh. Powell did break precedent by remaining on the Fed’s governing board as a governor. He will serve out the […]

“public’s extremely negative view of the economy”

As you probably know by now, I subscribe to Paul Krugman’s column which I read whenever I see something of interest. to me and maybe you too. Every once and a while I may C& P one column that is days old and post it at Angry Bear and of course attribute Professor Krugman. As […]