Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Gas prices and elections

I’ll admit that gas prices at the pump have no significant effect on me. I live close to everything I need to be in person (food, healthcare), and I drive a sub-compact fuel-efficient car. I combine trips and keep my tires inflated. The reality is that oil prices affect much more than your personal mobility. […]

How mass immigration raids might explain the historic lows in jobless claims

– by New Deal democrat I want to write an extended discussion of the April retail sales report released this morning, to tease out the effect of the spike in gas prices, but first let me do my usual weekly update on jobless claims. These have historically been a good short leading indicator for the economy, […]

Growing National Debt

Talking national debt. “Paying interest on a growing debt. not spent on education, healthcare, roads and bridges, social safety nets, or (if we actually needed more spending on it) national defense.” “Psst: What No One Will Tell You About the National Debt (But I Will),” Robert Reich You really need to know this . . . The […]

What the Consumer Price(s) Index for All Urban Consumers is Reporting Today

Brief Four minute read with graphs and tables. The Consumer Price(s) Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported May 12, 2026. The biggies here? Energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over […]

April CPI report shows further surge in gas and electricity prices, raises “yellow flag” recession caution

– by New Deal democrat As almost universally anticpated, the April CPI continued to reflect the big increase in gas prices – although it didn’t pack quite the wallop that March did. Headline CPI increased 0.6%, following March’s +0.9%, causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.8%.  Meanwhile the core measure increased 0.4%, causing the YoY% […]

Trump the Chump

It’s time to shit-talk the president. Congressional Democrats have had difficulty figuring out how to respond to Trump’s lawlessness, mendacity, stupidity, and cruelty.  The democratic base wants them to talk tough, but the hard reality is that they have almost no formal power and lack a party leader.  As a result, Trump has been left […]

Existing home sales, prices, and inventory remain rangebound

 – by New Deal democrat Although they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, I don’t pay too much attention to existing sales because they are not nearly so important as new home sales, since the latter involve much more economic activity in the building process, plus more landscaping and furnishings. As I’ll show below, what […]

New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators Summation May 4- 8

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, most of the data is almost relentlessly positive. In particular, those things most tied up with AI — corporate profits, stock prices, and downstream consumer spending — are particularly strong. Also, American energy companies are making windfall profits from the closure of […]

Healthcare Insurance Costs

Healthcare Insurance for a company is Overhead cost. Overhead costs are expenses supporting a business. They are not directly associated with labor input, to a product, or to a service you sell. I would not blame Labor for the rising role of healthcare costs in Overhead. This is beyond the cost of Labor input. It […]