Open Thread March 17 2024, January and February were rough months for inflation
Employ America’s current corecast is for a 2.86% YoY core PCE print for February. The six-month growth rate of core PCE, which was under 2% in December, should now be over 3% in February. Core services ex-housing inflation will be up on a year-on-year basis versus the previous meeting. Many FOMC members, especially among the moderates in the committee (Daly, Mester, Powell, Waller) have expressed a willingness to look through a hot January potentially plagued by seasonality issues, but two months are probably too much to stomach. “March 2024 FOMC Preview,” employamerica.org. Preston Mui
Why people see truth in Trump’s lies
Boston Globe – March 15
A scholar of rhetoric breaks down how people come to believe things that the opposing political tribe finds abhorrent.
(Excerpts from interview…)
@Fred,
So as a scholar of calculus, will you concede that there are two notions of truth as to whether the integral of ex is ex? Asking for a friend.
The number e is a mathematical constant approximately equal to 2.71828 that can be characterized in many ways. It is the base of natural logarithms. It is the limit of (1 + 1/n)n as n approaches infinity, an expression that arises in the computation of compound interest. It can also be calculated as the sum of the infinite series
(Also called ‘Euler’s Number’. It has curious characteristics, and is probably about as important is pi. Seems to have been discovered by Bernoulli in 1685.)
What is the Integral of e to the x? The integral of ex is ex + C. Symbolically it is written as ∫ ex dx = ex + C, where C is the integration constant.
(At least one of my calculus instructors thought I was terrible at it.)
@Fred,
So to cut through all your bafflegab, are you saying that the integral of ex isn’t ex?
∫ e^x dx = e^x + C, or ∫ e^x dx = e^x if C is zero, it would seem.
@Fred,
But that elides and obfuscates my question: is that formula merely one version of the truth in your mind?
Joel:
You gonna make us all think!
You know, at least as well as I do, that formulas can sometimes be proven wrong. E=mc^2, PV=nRT, etc. are objectively true.
I have said before, even as an atheist, that God is in the mathematics.
That’s how & why the universe works.
I do not understand why you are belaboring ‘truth’ vs ‘rhetoric’, but I am not too surprised that you are.
It occurred to me that, back in my days at RPI, a cheer at hockey games was
“E to the x, dy/dx, E to the x, dx.
Cosine, secant, tangent, sine.
3.14159
Square root, cube root, log of pi
Disintegrate them, RPI!”
@Fred,
Except for the last line, they plagiarized that cheer from MIT.
I think we need to remember that rhetoric is all about persuasion, not about truth, as such. I think the Globe interview posted is only about how Trump might win re-election, not about how dangerous for the US & the world for that to happen.
@Fred,
So for people who can’t be persuaded by truth, facts and evidence, we need to be prepared to entertain alternative facts? Is that the message?
You recall the great observations on the Net a few years ago, from a Princeton professor I recall, On Bullshit.
Harry Frankfurt – On Bullshit
The GOP is behaving in way that indicates they evidently believe that if Trump loses, the GOP is done for. That should seem pretty clear to you.
And you may even be ok with it. Then the Dem party can split into two (or more) parts. The good guys and the bad guys, no?
i think the lady is an example of what is wrong with too much education. truth is still truth, though it may be hard to find. persuasion is often lies. Sophistry is still making the good appear bad, and the bad appear good.
our business as humans is to learn to tell the difference…and to prefer truth.
if a rapist comes into my house and exposes his “personal truth” i will not admire him for that. the maga hats love trump because they are stupid, ignorant, and he expresses their desire to get what they want by force.
Before I arrived there, RPI had was renowned for its hockey team, with a coach they got from Cornell, and a lot of Canadian player/students. They were awesome. Still strong while I was there. And then there was football.
In the first few years I was there, they were heading for a record as the losingest college football team ever. (I think they tied the record.) Eventually they worked it out that they had to play weaker teams.
When I was a junior I think, they played Haverford and won 67 to nothing, breaking their string, not at home. We took down the goal posts anyway and cut them up in the physics department’s metal shop. I still have a piece.
Anyway, maybe MIT is known for sports the way RPI is?
@Fred,
“Anyway, maybe MIT is known for sports the way RPI is?”
Local world champions in the slide rule toss back in the day.
Information is seed, germinated it could grow to knowledge or faith.
Faith is believing a “fact” which is not proven true.
Knowledge is believing a “truth”, rigorously proven “fact”.
Information not preceded by dis-, mal-, mis- is not all that we need, we need to germinate/process it rigorously seeking truth.
Most politics is “faith”, and so we remember what Mom said about “arguing religion at dinner”.
paddy
“faith” is NOT believing what can’t be proven, it is taking a step in the direction you want to go, always subject to changing your mind. When Jesus told John to have faith he was recognizing that John did not have enough strength to seek truth on his own, so he was saying “have faith in me”.
we also talk about faith as in keeping faith with a friend, or being faithful to your wife. we know that Paul said “test all things”…the first step in the scientific method?. Religious people do not “believe what they don’t believe,” they believe in where the evidence leads them. Evidence about “truth” and “sanity” and “kindness” may not be the sort of thing you can put in a test tube and do randomized double blind experiments to “prove” but it is evidence nonetheless. And actually better evidence than what most people know of “science.”
Fred,
Interesting discussion on RPI, and MIT.
One Friday night in early 70’s I happened to catch a college hockey game at BU. After we went to see a friend at an MIT frat house. Darned if their ‘study hall’ was being well utilized that evening!
Friday nights for me were not school!!
I once worked with a man with an undergrad EE from MIT, and PhD from UCLA. Very well rounded person!
As taken from “The Warning.”
According to NBC News and three of the very best journalists in America, Carol Lee, Peter Nicholas and Courtney Kube, the cadre of cloistered DC careerists, lobbyists, and staffers around the president has triggered deep anxiety about their strategy to beat Trump.
An excerpt:
For months, Democrats have watched the 2024 campaign unfold with rising alarm as the sitting president struggles to gain ground against his defeated predecessor. Frustrations rippling through the party have reached the top, with Biden at times second-guessing travel decisions and communications strategies that have left much of the electorate clueless about his record, interviews with nearly 20 lawmakers, present and past administration officials and Biden allies show…
Surrounded by protective aides who want to minimize the chances of a flub, the 81-year-old president has chafed at restraints that he sees as counter to his natural instincts as a retail politician, a third person familiar with internal discussions said.
He has felt cocooned at times and has been eager to get out more, meet voters face-to-face and take the fight directly to Trump, said the third person and a fourth also familiar with the matter who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss campaign strategy and the president’s private views
There are signs that some within his party are also losing patience with him.
“Biden stood up in front of the whole world and said, ‘I’m ready. I’m the guy who can take down Donald Trump,’” said Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash. “So, he goddamn well better do it. We don’t have time for him to be worried about whether or not people are saying things right or the poll numbers are where they should be. I want focused energy and not defensive anger.”…
At times, Biden gets suggestions that conflict with one another. Some advisers have told him he should walk faster out of concern that his gait feeds impressions that he’s too old. And yet the White House is sufficiently worried about him tripping that he has taken to boarding Air Force One via a shorter staircase through the belly of the plane, forgoing the iconic image of the president waving from the main doorway high above the tarmac.
“He’s probably a little mad at himself for not being more forceful with the staff,” a person familiar with internal discussions said.
Privately, Biden questions whether he should trust his gut instincts over the guidance coming from the array of advisers tending to his political interests, this person added.
Steele Urges Anti-Trump Republicans to Vote For Biden
During the discussion, Steele highlighted the dilemma faced by some Republicans who may not align with Trump but remain reluctant to vote for a Democrat.
“And I get it. I get it with some Republicans who say, oh, ‘I just can’t vote for a Democrat.’ But this is not – you’re voting for your country. You’re not voting for a Democrat, in this case,” he said.
Acknowledging policy differences with Biden, Steele underscored the importance of healthy political discourse within a democracy.
“I have disagreements with Joe Biden on a number of policies, y’all know. And that’s okay. But that’s a good policy. That’s good and healthy for our democracy to have those disagreements,” he added.
He further criticized Trump’s legal troubles and authoritarian tendencies, urging Republicans to prioritize the nation’s interests over party loyalty.
Is Michael Steele going to able to convince Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney or Mike Pence to vote for Joe Biden? One can only hope…
No Labels announces committee to select presidential candidate
Washington Post – March 14
(“A leader of the centrist group says it will halt the effort after several months if it appears the ticket would help former president Donald Trump win.”)
*yawn*
Go ahead, show yer enthusiasm for Biden!
Pence and Cheney (daughter and father) have refused to endorse Trump. That’s pretty close.
Maybe they will both write in Mitt Romney!
Some writer at the Washington Post recently wrote that VP Harris should remove herself from the Democratic ticket. No idea if anyone pays attention to this writer or not, but seems to tie in well with what a Milwaukee Democrat told me a couple weeks ago that they can win with Biden/Harris but Harris looks like a problem for some influential Dems in 2028 and 2032 if she hangs around in 2024. Replace Biden almost solves the problem unless the party picks Harris anyway. But Biden seems unmovable, so pressure Harris directly? Again, this writer might be a flake, but the message sounds like ‘we are okay with Joe, but Harris sinks us’. This feels like nonsense, since the number of folks ready to vote for Biden but switching out to Trump, third party or not voting due to Harris is probably zero.
@Eric,
Outside of a couple of pundits in the MSM, I don’t see any evidence that Harris is a drag on the ticket in 2024.
I agree. The gist of my friend in Milwaukee’s hypothesis was that she was not a drag, Biden will win, she’ll be President by 2028 and other Democrats interested in the job are going to be out of luck until 2032 or even 2036. The idea is they dislike that enough that Harris is the real target in the ‘Biden should step aside’ ideas. Since the ‘Biden should step aside’ ideas don’t seem to work, maybe just go directly at Harris now. Like I said, it seems tremendously improbable that this is thought of as a 2024 election strategy since it makes no sense, except to sideline her for the future. Step 1: campaign to get Joe to step aside. Step 2: just work on Kamala. Step 3: well if Joe loses, then 2028 is wide open?!
@Eric,
Hilarious! Harris won’t get the nomination in 2028. If Joe wins or loses, won’t affect 2028.
Nixon was Eisenhower’s VP and he lost to Kennedy. Johnson was Kennedy’s VP, but he won in 1964 as an incumbent, not as a VP. Ford was Nixon’s (unelected) VP and he lost to Carter. GHW Bush was Reagan’s VP and he *did* get elected, but only for one term. Gore was Clinton’s VP and didn’t succeed him. Cheney was GW Bush’s VP and didn’t succeed him. Biden was Obama’s VP and didn’t succeed him. Mike Pence was Trump’s VP and didn’t succeed him. I just don’t see the inevitability of VP succession in the modern age.
she will if she already is President is their concern.
@Eric,
Sure seems like there are more important things to worry about right now.
How Trump’s Allies Are Winning the War Over Disinformation
NY Times – today
““The censorship cartel must be dismantled and destroyed, and it must happen immediately,” he thundered at the start of his 2024 campaign.”
LOL! So he’s gonna campaign against “don’t say gay” and book censorship in Florida schools?
Trump has already promised to weaponize the government on Day 1 if he is elected. Whatever they accuse others of is what they’re doing or planning to do. Depend on it.
(This is arguably a ‘good’ way to get a tryrant elected, no?)
Trump defends his warning of a ‘blood bath for the country.’
NY Times – today
BUT his full remarks were:
Joel, ran out of replies, but the genesis of this is that at least some Democrats seem so confident about the 2024 results that they actually do not have bigger political things to worry about. You may have missed my original comment maybe 10 days ago that some feel Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are Democratic locks in spite of polling, so Biden wins and high odds that Harris becomes President during that second term. This was just something told to me by a Milwaukee Democrat (pretty smart one) about why efforts to pressure Biden…..it’s all about Harris and not that she is an electoral liability, but she sets up as a real threat to close out 2028 and even possibly 2032. So it interested me to hear about a column kind of throwing in the towel on moving Biden, but still working to push Harris out. I did not read the column due to paywall.
Eric:
Oh pleaseeeee. When the hell did you become an expert on Democrats? You know what the real problem is, she is black and a woman. God forbid if she makes a mistake like the Bushes did or a number of them like trump did. You need to ask Zoltar again:
Kamala Harris’s High Presidential Odds
Nat’l Review – July 20, 2023
(Nat’l Review. What would you expect? Back when DeSantis had a chance.)
(I hope & expect that ‘Not many Americans’ would prefer Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Except those that would ditch NATO and form defense alliances with Russia & China.)
@Fred,
LOL! As if The National Buckley provides an unbiased insight into the Democratic ticket.
It’s almost as if we were finally heading towards the world that existed in ‘1984’, which was really a dystopian satire about where it looked like things were headed in 1948.
Appeals Court Puts Texas Immigration Law on Hold Again
NY Times – updated a couple of hours ago
The law went temporarily into effect after a Supreme Court ruling. But hours later, an appeals court unexpectedly issued an order effectively blocking the law’s implementation.
Kate Middleton, Britney Spears and the Online Trolls Doubting Their Existence
NY Times – just in
Kate Middleton, Britney Spears and the Online Trolls Doubting Their Existence
NY Times – just in
‘Taylor Swift dead 2024 : Singer killed by celebrity death hoax’ …
She also died, previously, back in 2012.