Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

April ISM manufacturing: how long can the AI manufacturing Boom keep exploding prices from creating a consumer implosion?

– by New Deal democrat April data started out as usual with the ISM manufacturing index. There was some good news, but mainly bad news. The good news was that the headline ISM number (blue in the graph below) remained positive, and was unchanged at 52.7 (recall that any number above 50.0 indicates expansion). The more […]

Teachers Pay and Benefits

A new survey underscores the importance of professional salaries and benefits like paid parental leave in keeping educators in the profession—and how collective bargaining can have a major impact. “How Teachers View Their Pay and Benefits” Tim Walker, Senior Writer Ask most K-12 public school teachers what would make them stay in the profession, better […]

Blockbuster initial jobless claims report suggests unemployment could decline all the way to 4.0%

– by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to either the GDP report or the jobless claims report yesterday. I’m going to hold off on the GDP report until next week, because there was a lot going on, but this morning (before the ISM manufacturing Index comes out) let’s take a look at jobless […]

Stagflationary real personal income, real spending on durable goods were recessionary in March, but consumers and manufacturers haven’t retrenched

 – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also give us an idea of what is likely to happen with regard to jobs […]

Healthcare Costs

The following (Healthcare Cost Increases) is taken from the longer Employ America piece. His portion touches upon healthcare costs and how those costs impact labor income and hiring. An Increase in healthcare and insurance costs is similar to a tax. As it increases, more money must be set aside having an impact on overall overhead. […]

The quandary of housing: almost all signs are classically recessionary; so why hasn’t there been a recession?

– by New Deal democrat As I reiterated the other day, housing is the one long leading signal of the economy that has been soundly negative – indeed frankly recessionary – for the past year. That trend continued in March, although there are signs of it bottoming out. Without having caused a recession.  Let me start […]

Capital goods orders rise to a new all-time record high in March

 – by New Deal democrat There was some important housing data this morning; but first I wanted to drop a brief note on the advance report on manufacturing that also was released, because it is yet more confirmation of the (surprising) strong positive trend in that sector. This report covered March, so included the first […]

Buying a Home Today May be Difficult

Sometimes, you can get the best deals when the economy is not so good. However, you may end up with a higher mortgage rate. One years we purchase a home In Schaumberg, Il for a good price and ended up with a 12% mortgage due to the economy. Since my wife’s mother was living with […]

Data Centers and Water

Not sure why. They are building in Arizona. I would think Arizona would be one of the last places to build a data center as water is not abundant, There are water issues here. Surface water is drying up. It’s no secret Arizona is worrying about its water. The Colorado River is drying up, in part due […]

Repeat home sales, new rents continue to show almost *no* inflationary pressure in shelter costs

 – by New Deal democrat Three housing metrics have been reported between yesterday and today. Yesterday Apartment List updated their National Rent Report, and today the two national repeat home sales indexes, from the FHFA and Case-Shiller, were updated through February. To cut to the chase, all three confirm that housing prices have ceased being an […]