Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Cooling? Or Red-Hot? Psst Labor Market

I am not going to put Preston Mui’s entire Labor Market Recap May 2024: Still Cool report from Employ America up on Angry Bear. Most of all, I wanted his summation of what he was seeing. He gives up his reasoning as to why the two surveys differ. It is an easy read if you […]

14th Amendment, Debt Ceiling & Perpetual Bonds

When I read this (third article below), I thought of an earlier commentary by one of our peer-reviewed economists. This is what Robert Waldman had to say: “Investors are glad to pay the Treasury to keep their wealth safe. Now consider the US Federal Government intertemporal budget constraint — the present value of spending must […]

Prescriptive View: Three Layers of a Fed Failure

In 2018. I made a similar argument without the detail Skanda Amarnath provides today. My points were not accepted. I went to a “we shall see” mode. And we did see banks taking risks because they could do so because Congress (which included Democrats) gave them the slack to do so too soon. In 2018, […]

The (Recessionary) Projections of December 2022 Live On

Editorial by EMPLOY AMERICA on The Fed Chair’s 25bp hike which are aligning with the Fed’s consensus and market beliefs and Powell’s expectations of continuing inflation risks. Gotta make sure the chance of inflation is really dead. Poking at it with 25bp hike now, making sure it is dead, and two more rounds of the […]

Rapid 2020 Recovery, Faster than Previous Recoveries

Coming from a different source of information . . . Employ America emphasizes a rapid recovery in 2020 as measured from a pre-recession peak till now. If you recall the 2008 recovery after Wall Street and banks were faltering was by far longer. In this case, we are looking at a Covid inspired period of […]