Good news and bad news Thursday: the bad news is real retail sales
Bonddad Blog
– by New Deal democrat
This morning brought us both good and bad economic news.
The good news was that initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000, down -1,000 from last week, while the four week average declined -500 to 208,000. Even better, after major downward revisions, continuing claims rose 17,000 to 1.811 million:
Recall that continuing claims had been reported over 1.900 million, so as I said above, this was major!
On the more important YoY basis for forecasting, initial claims are down -14.3%, the four week average down -7.2%, and continuing claims, which before revisions had been running at about 10% higher YoY, are now only up 2.2%:
This is all very positive for continued good employment numbers in the months ahead (but see my next post today!).
Last week the unemployment number very much did NOT do what I expected, which was to remain steady or decline. Instead it rose to a new 2+ year high of 3.9%. I wondered whether, because unemployment includes both new and existing job losses, it followed continuing claims more than initial claims (although initial claims lead both).
Here’s the long term pre-pandemic trend (divided into two parts for easier viewing)(continuing claims /8 for scale):
Historically, as I’ve always pointed out, initial claims lead both continuing claims and the unemployment rate. The above graph shows that continuing claims also lead the unemployment rate, although with much less of a lead time.
So here is the post-pandemic record:
The divergence between initial and continuing claims beginning this past autumn looks like it indeed has passed through into the unemployment rate. Since the historical record remains that initial claims lead continuing claims, and in the past three weeks (post revisions!) continuing claims have declined sharply, we’ll see how this shakes out after the full month of March.
Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well, Angry Bear, by New Deal democrat
Why people see truth in Trump’s lies
Boston Globe – March 15
A scholar of rhetoric breaks down how people come to believe things that the opposing political tribe finds abhorrent.
(Part of the interview that followed:)
@Fred,
I was about to download her book to my ereader, but then I read this:
“But I’d be more comfortable saying that what we’re dealing with is two different notions of truth, both of which have deep historical roots for us in the West.
Does this mean that a flat earth and a round earth are two different notions of truth? That the sun or the earth at the center of the solar system are two different notions of truth? That descent with modification and special creation are two different notions of truth?