– by New Deal democrat Note: there was a good advance manufacturers’ new orders report for September this morning. I’m going to save discussing it until Friday, when I dissect the regional Fed reports, which are now all in through November. Neither building permits and starts, nor new residential sales, were updated this morning, which means […]
– by New Deal democrat The housing market, for all of its economic importance, tends to move as slow as molasses. This is especially true as to prices, where sellers are loathe to realize a loss, even when compared to hypothetical gains they could have had by selling earlier. The pandemic, of course, through […]
– by New Deal democrat Housing data for June resumed this morning with existing home sales. Let me start with my usual caveat: although they typically constitute about 90% of all sales are the least important for forecasting purposes, since the main thing that happens is only a change in ownership, and therefore they have much less economic […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday we got the existing home sales portion of the rebalancing of the housing market, showing sales down further, and price growth attenuation. This morning, we got the new home slice, which was a virtual mirror image. As per usual, while new home sales are only about 10% of the […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past number of months, I have been looking for a rebalancing of new vs. existing home sales. The sharp increase in mortgage rates beginning in 2022 locked many existing homeowners into their houses, since they could not afford the concomitant increase in mortgage payments that would accrue from […]
In my lingo, existing home sales still down and mortgage rates for new homes still high. Builders are doing what they can do to encourage sales. New Deal democrat gives a clearer view and a hint of an outcome. Read on . . . Existing home sales try to find a bottom, while severe bifurcation […]
House prices on track to go negative YoY by summer, despite monthly increase in February – by New Deal democrat House prices through February as measured by both the FHFA (gold in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (red) Indexes rose, the former by 0.5% (after a downwardly revised 0.1% in January), and the latter by […]
The housing market’s downward turn begins: new home sales in February, plus a comment about affordability As of this morning Mortgage News Daily shows the 30 year mortgage rate up to 4.72%, 1.9% higher than their lows 15 months ago, and the highest in four years. That means the housing market is in some serious […]
While house price gains continue to go nuts, housing remains much more affordable than at the peak of the bubble The boom – and maybe insanity – in house price gains continued in February, as both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes increased roughly 1% just since January! The YoY increase for both […]
New home sales rise m/m, but signal caution for housing market going forward New home sales increased to a three month annualized high of 923,000 in January. This is of a piece with the positive news last week on housing permits. At the same time, the pace remains below the recent high of 979,000 annualized […]