Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A “Big Picture” look at housing

A “Big Picture” look at housing at Seeking Alpha; plus an in-depth look at existing home sales and inventory I have one of my periodic “Big Picture” looks at housing up over at Seeking Alpha. One economic relationship – whether sales lead inventory for existing homes as well as new ones – has been extremely difficult […]

Nat Gas Up, SPR, Oil, Distillates, Product supply Low

RJS, Focus on Fracking __________ Summary: Natural gas price hits 164 month high after doubling in 2 months; SPR at a 1058 week low, total US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 […]

Can empire-sized Republics long survive, and the failure of judicial supremacy as a bulwark

On the self-government of prehistorical human settlements, whether empire-sized Republics can long survive, and the failure of judicial supremacy as a bulwark   Can the Empire-sized Republic long survive? This was the issue I pondered after Donald Trump was elected President in 2016. Once a country gets big enough, do elected officials ultimately fail, and people […]

Has Putin shown us his off ramp?

Putin is looking for an off ramp and has outlined his main terms. In mid-March, it became clear that a full-blown Russian defeat in Ukraine was a real possibility.  That possibility has grown in the past few weeks as the Russians have continued to perform shambolically in every way possible, and NATO has increased its […]

April jobs report: strong Establishment survey, very weak Household survey

April jobs report: strong Establishment survey, very weak Household survey (UPDATED)  I got a late start on this report today (May 6). I’ll add much more detail shortly, but for now, be advised in summary that while the establishment report was strong, with mainly positive internals, the household report was very weak, with some very […]

Weekly Indicators for May 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Over the past few months, indicators across all timeframes have deteriorated. With increasing interest rates, and another Fed rate hike, that trend continued, and spread to credit conditions in a significant way. As […]