Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims continue recent strong streak

Jobless claims continue recent strong streak Programming note: I’ll put up separate posts on durable goods orders, real manufacturing and trade sales, and the Q4 GDP reports later. Initial jobless claims have been the best performing – and perhaps only positive – element of the short leading indicators in the past few months. And that […]

Arizona’s Worst and Best of Times

“Arizona: It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times“, Substack, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar I ran across this substack a few weeks ago. The majestic and excellent basketball player I had watched play a wicked game of ball, can also write good articles. Since I now live in Arizona where the politics differ […]

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative  – by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give […]

Interesting Stuff from my In-Box, January 25, 2023

It has taken a bit of time after Christmas to get back into the swing of things. A week during Christmas while in Breckenridge, I spent it in bed due to Attitude Altitude sickness. One night I was looking at the vertical wood slats on the wall which appeared to be populated with numbers similar […]

Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators?

Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators? – by New Deal democrat This week is one of those where almost all of the important data is crammed into one day – in this case, Thursday, when Q4 GDP, initial claims, real manufacturng and trade sales, durable goods orders, […]

Extending Capital to Nature, Reducing Nature to Capital

Extending Capital to Nature, Reducing Nature to Capital The Biden administration has announced it is inaugurating a program to incorporate the value of natural resources and ecological services into national income accounts.  The New York Times article reporting this development predictably portrays the response as divided between two camps: on the one side are environmentalists, who think […]

Jury Findings for the January 6 Insurrectionists

I am waiting to see what the courts dish out for the insurrectionists who thought it was kind-of-“kool” to attack the Senate and House while in session certifying the 2020 presidential election vote. The insurrectionist sitting at Nancy Pelosi’s desk was sentenced last week. He claimed he was looking for a bathroom. So far, I […]

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation  – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mastodon that largely relied on the following graph: concluding that “[A]t this point the burden of proof lies on […]