Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New Bill to Restore the ACA CSR

Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-TN) “If they don’t, there will be chaos in this country and millions of Americans will be hurt.”

Twelve Republicans and 12 Democrats signed on to the bill, which would continue ObamaCare’s insurer subsidies for two years and give states more flexibility to waive ObamaCare rules.

Senator Alexander is talking about the impact of Trump canceling the CSR which pays for deducible and co-pays directly to insurance companies for the insured between 138% and 250% FPL. And no, neither the CSR or the Risk Corridor Program bailouts for insurance companies. All of these are lies and misconceptions coming from the mouths of Republicans and the President.

Here is what will happen:

– Premiums for benchmark plans sold on the Affordable Care Act exchanges will rise about 20 percent next year and about 25 percent by 2020. The cost to consumers, however, would stay the same or even decline.
– People with lower incomes who buy insurance on the exchanges get a tax credit, so their costs remain stable as a share of their income. When premiums rise, those government subsidies rise as well.
– For people with incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty level, the out-of-pocket cost of insurance would remain about the same because of the bigger tax credits.
– For those with incomes between 200 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level, the cost to buy insurance could actually get cheaper. Some Gold plans may be cheaper than the Silver plans. 85 percent of people who bought Obamacare insurance got a tax credit.

Kaiser Family Foundation Vice president Larry Levitt: “The CBO analysis makes it clear. The ending cost-sharing subsidies would be a perfect example of cutting off your nose to spite your face. Premiums would rise and the government would end up spending more in the end through tax credits that help people pay their premiums.”

The CBO report confirms earlier analyses, including this one by Kaiser and this one from the consulting firm Oliver Wyman suggested eliminating the cost-sharing payments could make policies cheaper for some individuals.

In the end, the elimination of the CSR may cause a deficit of $194 billion. While it may be chaotic in the beginning, the CBO assumes things will level out over a period of 2-3 years.

Giving states more control over the ACA in areas such as the 10 essential benefits would spell the end for the ACA and we would be back to garbage polices. If you are prone to do so, it would be helpful to write your sponsoring Senator and tell them you are opposed to this bill by Senator Alexander. The  Democratic co-sponsors include Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), Al Franken (D-MN), Joe Manchin (D-WVA.), Tom Carper (D-DE.), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI.), Claire McCaskill (D-MS), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH).

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“Hurricane adjusting” initial claims has proven its value

“Hurricane adjusting” initial claims has proven its value

For the last month, I deduced a “hurricane adjusted” number for initial claims, which showed that the previous underlying positive trend was intact, with the four week average remaining in the 230,000’s.

That approach was borne out by this week’s report, which, at 222,000, was the lowest since 1973.

Although I haven’t gone through the entire formal exercise, here’s how the numbers from the three affected jurisdictions compared in last week’s report compared with one year previously:

FL 13,861 (+6508 from 2016)
TX 16,656 (-225 from 2016)
PR 250 (-2409 from 2016) (DoL estimate)

Net change: +3904 from 2016

Since the seasonal adjustment last week was only ~6%, (244,000 vs. 229,289 NSA), this means last week’s “hurricane adjusted” number was on the order of 239,000 or 240,000.

Natural disasters will continue to strike. I am confident that the method I used in 2012 after Sandy, and again this past month, is a good way to distill the underlying trend from the disaster disturbance.

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Silicon Valley is not your friend

Vis New York Times

Growth becomes the overriding motivation — something treasured for its own sake, not for anything it brings to the world. Facebook and Google can point to a greater utility that comes from being the central repository of all people, all information, but such market dominance has obvious drawbacks, and not just the lack of competition. As we’ve seen, the extreme concentration of wealth and power is a threat to our democracy by making some people and companies unaccountable.

In addition to their power, tech companies have a tool that other powerful industries don’t: the generally benign feelings of the public. To oppose Silicon Valley can appear to be opposing progress, even if progress has been defined as online monopolies; propaganda that distorts elections; driverless cars and trucks that threaten to erase the jobs of millions of people; the Uberization of work life, where each of us must fend for ourselves in a pitiless market.

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Marxism-Leninism And The Chinese Communist Party Congress

Marxism-Leninism And The Chinese Communist Party Congress

At this moment I am watching live on Bloomberg News the opening speech by President/Party General Secretary/Chairman of the Military Commission Xi Jinping of the once-every-five-years Chinese Communist Party Congress.  This is far more important than what one finds on other TV networks whether pro-Trump right now (how great his tax plan/tromping on immigrants and football players are) or anti-Trump (what is the latest gossip from the Mueller investigation and will Republicans in the Senate stand up to Trump).  A major theme seems to be a reassertion of party power and discipline, with a reinvigoration of the State-Owned Enterprises, with Communist Party cells to operate in nominally private enterprises, socialism with Chinese characteristics, with a reaffirmation of the foundation based on Marxism-Leninism.  Yes, he used that term.

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On the Effect of the Gender Composition of the Editorial Boards for Top Economics Journals

Here’s the abstract of a discussion paper from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics by Felix Bransch and Michael Kvasnicka:

Using data on articles published in the top-five economic journals in the period 1991 to 2010, we explore whether the gender composition of editorial boards is related to the publishing success of female authors and to the quality of articles that get published. Our results show that female editors reduce, rather than increase, the share of articles that are (co-)authored by females. We also find evidence that female editors benefit article quality at low levels of representation on editorial boards, but harm article quality at higher levels. Several robustness checks corroborate these findings. Our results are broadly consistent with existing evidence on the behavior of gender-mixed hiring committees and of relevance for gender equality policy.

The rest of the article is also at the link.

Consider this post to be a follow up to this one.

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Senate to Vote on Budget Resolution

A couple of weeks ago, the House passed a Tax Reform Budget Resolution. Today, the Senate will take a vote on its Tax Reform Budget Resolution. Once passed, the differences will need to be resolved by both legislative bodies. President Trump met with the Senate Committee which included 6 Democratic Senators of which 5 are up for re-election in 2018. Trump impressed upon Senator Wyden the need for support of the Republican Tax Reform measure.

Except the call by President Trump did not get a favorable response. Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon called the President and the Republican’s bill a “con job” stating; there is a Grand Canyon-sized gap between the rhetoric surrounding this plan and reality.”

All the happy talk about helping the middle class and avoiding a giveaway to the wealthy sounds great, but it is not what the White House and Republicans have on offer.”

Going forward, the content of both Resolutions will have to be reconciled and the differences between the House and the Senate’s Tax Reform Budget Resolution assumptions resolved. The House Resolution assumes the tax plan will generate economic growth and calls for $203 billion in miscellaneous spending cuts over a decade, while the Senate Resolution assumes no economic growth and creates a deficit of ~$1.5 trillion over a 10 year period. Most likely, greater importance will be placed on the Senate’s Resolution by Republicans due to their slim majority. Passing Tax Reform before 2018 elections has taken a priority for Republicans after doing so poorly with revising, repealing, and/or replacing the ACA. Little concern is given to its long term impact. In the end and the same as the 2001/2003 tax breaks, any deficits created after 10 years result in a sunset of the bill.

After the House and the Senate agree on a Budget Resolution, the House Ways and Means Committee will release a detailed tax bill and schedule a committee vote. The Tax Reform bill will go to the House and the Senate to be passed under Reconciliation rules (a majority) vote disallowing a filibuster effort by the Dems in the Senate. This will be the same as what occurred with the ACA although the Republican Senators who opposed the ACA legislation such as Collins and McCain will support Tax Reform.

More to come.

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Precursor to Ecological Armageddon.

(Dan here…Stormy sends a reminder that the world has a real side as well…lifted from an e-mail))

Calling out the precursor to an Ecological Armageddon.

Thought you might like to see this study—also written up in Guardian.  Economists are totally irrelevant.   Profit and money are their game….and that game is ending within our children’s lifetime.

More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas

See also:

Warning of ‘Ecological Armageddon’ after dramatic plunge in insect numbers

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Iraq Conquers Kirkuk

Iraq Conquers Kirkuk

The central Iraqi government based in Baghdad has conquered oil-rich and ethnically-mixed Kirkuk from its recent Kurdish rulers, who hoped to continue ruling it as part of their recently declared independent state of (Iraqi) Kurdistan, clearly consisting of three provinces, but which they also wanted to include the fourth one of Kirkuk province. This now appears not to be going to happen.

Juan Cole has made an excellent discussion of this, noting 7 reasons why this is not about Iran as many commentators in the US claim. I shall not repeat most of his arguments here but suggest people look at the link. I shall note the crucial point that what looked like it was going to be a major military conflict over Kirkuk thankfully turned out not to be is that the Kurdish Pesh Merga, who were ruling Kirkuk, actually are tied to the main opposition party in Kurdistan, the Patriotic Union Party (PUK) led by the Talabani family,whose old patriarch, once a president of all of Iraq, has just died. The Pesh Merga has simply withdrawn peacefully from Kirkuk, handing a major embarrassment to Massoud Barzani, the current president of newly independent (maybe) Kurdistan, who leads the center right Democratic Party of Kurdistan (DPK). This suggests that while the opposition nominally supported Barzani’s independence referendum, they lack enthusiasm, and Barzani may end up in trouble as things are not going well with this. As I noted in a previous post, Barzani is in a tight position because he canceled an election in 2015, and Kurdistan’s economy has been weak due to low oil prices.

I also add that apparently the fall of Kirkuk temporarily shuts down 350,000 barrels of oil per day production, which will add to the ongoing increase in world oil prices.

Barkley Rosser

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Underlying industrial production trend ex-hurricanes remains positive

Underlying industrial production trend ex-hurricanes remains positive

A few weeks ago, I suggested a hurricane workaround for industrial production. That approach was to average the four regional Fed indexes excluding Dallas, and add the Chicago PMI, and finally discount for the unusual strength this year in these regional indexes vs. production.

Here was my conclusion:

The average of the 5 is 22.9.
Dividing that by 5 gives us +.5.
Subtracting .3 gives us +.2.

We can be reasonably confident that underlying trend in industrial production in September, despite the hurricanes, has been positive.

That approach was borne out yesterday when overall September Industrial Production was reported at +0.3%, with manufacturing production up +0.1% as shown in the graphs below.:

First, here’s the longer term view,. Note that the decline in 2015 was due to weakness confined to the Oil Patch:
Here is the close-up of this year:
That’s the good news.  The bad news, of course, is that even with this improvement, the big (revised) August decline of -0.7% in production, and -0.2% in manufacturing has not been overcome, and production is still below where it was this spring.

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