Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Real personal spending on durable goods rebounds from near recessionary levels, including motor vehicle purchases

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday we saw a slew of data releases, including durable and core capital goods orders, jobless claims, personal income and spending, and motor vehicle sales. I reported on all but personal spending and motor vehicle sales yesterday. Today let’s take a look at the last two. Let me start with the […]

Jobless claims: seasonality returns, but remains very positive for the economy

 – by New Deal democrat This morning a plethora of economic data was released, including personal spending and income, manuacturers’ new orders, motor vehicle sales, and jobless claims. Since tomorrow sees no significant data releases, I’m going to hold the in-depth look at spending and motor vehicle sales until tomorrow, and update the other releases today. […]

Manufacturing sector continues to be positive through May

 – by New Deal democrat Per my post earlier this morning, I am going to delay until tomorrow reporting on motor vehicle sales and an in-depth look at personal spending, but let’s look at the second significant data release from this morning: manufacturers’ new durable goods orders for May. To cut to the chase, this […]

Respect and the Vulgar Class

I do not know how others are raised in their families. You can get an idea by watching how they act with others and yourseld for that matter. With an Italian mother and grandmother as well as a strict father, we were taught to respect others, their customs, and adults. It does carry over into […]

May new home sales: Another poor month for sales, prices stable, inventory increasing

– by New Deal democrat To start with the usual: new home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, which is why I pay more attention to single family permits. But they are the most leading of all the housing data; and averaged over three months, much of the noise goes away. In May, new […]

Austerity for thee but not for me

Republicans are once again blaming social programs for the ballooning deficits and national debt. Setting aside the fact that the US debt/GDP ratio was higher at the end of WWII and that Japan has a far higher debt/GDP ratio, what would a serious discussion about federal spending look like? Obviously, it would decry the squandering […]

Consumer spending has turned red hot – expect no recession in the immediate future

 – by New Deal democrat Well, I was working on one nerdy long-term historical post this morning, when I decided to check the weekly update on consumer spending from Redbook. And, as you’ll see below, that was the end of that! (I may yet follow up this afternoon. We’ll see.) Last week, Redbook consumer spending was […]

The “quick and dirty” forecasting method has been flawless

– by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how I have been rethinking the long leading indicators — those that are useful for forecasting the economy 12-24 months out — because while when they are positive, the economy has been as well, but when they have been negative (twice) in the past 15 years, […]

Efforts to Intimidate Organizations Supporting Voters and Voting

Apparently, the Trump administration feels secure enough to attack and intimidate organizations that protect the rights of individuals and minorities. It is a direct attempt to silence those who may or do oppose the actions of this administration. “Above everything else, the case against the Southern Poverty Law Center is absurd. Maybe deliberately so. It’s […]

Housing Rent in the United States

AB: Unless you were very fortunate, you probably rented an apartment, house, or some place in which to live. Even when we started out, rent took a sizeable amount of “our” income near Chicago. Jan being a paralegal and I finishing up college certainly solved the issue over time. Even then an early on, we […]