New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators for May 25 – 29
My Weekly Indicators for May 25 – 29 is up at Seeking Alpha, New Deal democrat The split between the portion of the economy being driven by AI-related production and profits and the broad consumer economy continues to stand out starkly. But as I have pointed out often in the past many months, there is no sign as of yet that the consumer is putting down their credit card and pulling in their horns.
- The U.S. economy remains expansionary, with positive readings across long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators this week.
- Bond market spreads and surging Q1 corporate profits are strong positives, but a “bear steepener” in yields and a negative leverage index warn of future tightening.
- Short leading indicators are buoyed by record stock prices and rebounding manufacturing, yet commodity price spikes suggest supply-driven risks rather than demand strength.
- Consumer spending is robust despite a YoY decline in real personal income, with expansion sustained by savings drawdown and strong capital goods orders.
i have doubts that consumer spending is all great based on a loss of 1 million customers for vehicles, and consumer incomes have been under pressure for decades with little growth to speak of, with most businesses being more interested in not increasing wages, and either out-sourcing work or off-shoring more and more of the work. And AI is a threat to more well-paid workers, with the combination of AI and Robots being a threat to almost all jobs, that eventually leads to no (to extremely) little sales for businesses.
And the elimination of entire departments (HR being one of them, with many more to follow).
Ok David,
Where did NDd talk about vehicles?