Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for January 30 – February 3

Weekly Indicators for January 30 – February 3 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While yesterday’s blockbuster jobs report dominated the monthly reports, several important weekly reports, notably the 4 week average of retail sales as measured by Redbook, and the temporary Staffing Index, weakened further […]

January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration

January jobs report: like a sports car at maximum acceleration    – by New Deal democrat My focus on this report was on whether manufacturing and construction jobs turned negative or not, and whether the deceleration apparent in job growth would continue. Both of those were answered emphatically in the negative. Here’s my in depth synopsis. HEADLINES: […]

Some Important Bits of History for February 1

Black History Month is in February if you do not know it. Prof. Heather Cox Richardson celebrates it with a mixture of past and present facts, points, and references to it. Some of her points are ugly. Amongst her reverence to Black History Month is the detail of how the Battle Hymn of the Republic […]

JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive

JOLTS and jobless claims: the labor market remains a strong positive  – by New Deal democrat The message from the JOLTS report for December yesterday and jobless claims for last week today is that the labor market remains the strongest sector of the economy, with plenty of unfilled job openings, and almost no layoffs. Initial […]

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending declines

January manufacturing at recessionary levels; December construction spending also declines  – by New Deal democrat The first data for the month of January is in, and with one exception, it is pretty bad. The ISM manufacturing index declined -1.0 to 47.4. According to the ISM, 48 is the cutoff below which is more consistent with […]

California waits as Other states submit Colorado River plan

California holds out as Arizona, other states submit Colorado River plan, ktar.com, KTAR FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) — Six Western states that rely on water from the Colorado River have agreed on a model to dramatically cut water use in the basin, months after the federal government called for action and an initial deadline passed. With […]

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peaked at the beginning of 2022, and starts followed several months later.  This morning the FHFA and […]

Infidel753: “What the NRA gets right — and wrong”

Introduction: Each time there is a mass shooting, Angry Bear will take a stance on the issue. A stance which many will not like. Angry Bear is tolerant of opposing views to a point. For the record, I am an XMarine Sergeant who was an Expert with a straight-out-of-the-armory stock M14. I grew up shooting […]

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for January 23 – 27

Weekly Indicators for January 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators creep towards a recessionary downturn on a weekly basis. Also, some of the long leading indicators are also creeping […]