Weekly Indicators: Points Of Weakness – Just Static? There was another air pocket this week in withholding tax payments, and some weakening in mortgage applications, but the overall tone remains positive, despite the ongoing international chaos emanating from Washington. Once again there was little change this week, and all time frames remained positive. As usual, […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing about the economy, and employing forecasting models, for over 20 years. For the entire duration of the period, there have been portents of DOOOM written about by many others. I have been much more cautious, going on “Recession Watch” only twice since 2008: in 2019 and late 2022. […]
Not that this is any surprise. Employers have always been looking for way to downsize Labor input in products. Whether it is through automation, better throughput due to factory upgrades, or going overseas. A I have pointed out previously, upgrading equipment (nc to cnc) can have a big input to reducing costs. Improve factory layout […]
Intro: Former Biden CEA Chair: Jared Bernstein from his new Econ Site. Right now Jared’s site is opened to all readers with no fees for the site. You may want to take a few moments and read what he has to say on various economic topics while you can, This commentary is on inflation and […]
Elite opinion so far seems to be running against the deal, but the public may be won over. If the deal holds up, gas prices will come down. In addition, the economy will strengthen and the risk of recession will go down. This is why I thought Trump might just walk away from the war […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and retail sales is our first wide measure of that spending. And since consumption leads employment, it is an important real world measure. In May, after two months of being dominated by gas prices, it was even more decisively driven by a likely […]
As any pharmacologist or toxicologist will tell you, the dose makes the poison. Most rice contains arsenic. Baked goods contain acrylamide. Seafood contains methylmercury. Natural groundwater contains fluoride. But in moderation, none of those things are toxic. Thanks to RFK Jr, there’s been a lot of silly nattering about the alleged dangers of ultraprocessed foods. […]
“The best way to see this is that none of the further negotiation parts of this deal are going to happen. Those provide each side, but especially the U.S. with a figleaf to sell their respective publics. This is really just an agreement to stop. The U.S. will have achieved none of its strategic objectives […]
For all his boasting about winning and a deal with Iran, all Trump has is a memorandum of understanding. It apparently includes a 60-day period when Iran won’t collect tolls in the strait, a cessation of attacks by the US and some inchoate future discussion on buried uranium. And the CIA director has cast public […]
Presumably the deal is embarrassing to either Iran or the Trump administration (or possibly to both parties). My guess is the embarrassment is on Trump. He gets nothing except the end of the global oil shortage he caused. The Iranians will get a large financial benefit in one form or another – a benefit that […]