Three Different Views about Oil
These are partials. I have not found one article talking about the entire process. Trump is so volatile, it is hard to know where these talks are going to end up. Oil Price present a “now, short term view. The FED is looking at it from an inflationary aspect. Bolton does not believe we are close to resolving the oil issue. Then, we have Trump who could blow any negotiation up. We are here because Trump could not control himself in attacking Iran. How many $billions has this cost globally?
Oil Prices Suffer Biggest Weekly Collapse in Two Months | OilPrice.com, Tom Kool
Brent crude is heading for its biggest weekly drop in two months as markets bet on a 60-day ceasefire extension and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
ICE Brent is set to post its largest weekly loss in two months, dropping by almost 10%, as media reports present a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire and a temporary Hormuz navigation deal as close to being a done deal. Whether US President Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei agree to the deal or not, Brent at $92 per barrel suddenly feels much more comfortable for oil importers.
Fed’s Schmid warns against Viewing Oil Shock as Transitory – AOL
NEW YORK, May 29 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said on Friday that already-hot levels of inflation make it harder to assume the current energy shock will have only a temporary impact on pricing and can be ignored by the central bank.
“My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot and has been above target for too long,” Schmid said in the text of a speech to be delivered before a conference in Iceland.
“I place little stock in assuming that the most recent runup in prices is transitory within an acceptable time horizon,” and “as such, my focus remains on inflation in setting the correct course for policy.” He added: “Now is not the time to let down our guard,” given how long inflation has been above the central bank’s 2% target.
Schmid did not say, however, how his inflation worries bear on what he expects for monetary policy.
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts
The Fed is widely expected to keep its interest rate target unchanged at between 3.5% and 3.75% at its next Federal Open Market Committee meeting next month, while market participants have shifted from expecting rate cuts later this year to expecting a possible rate increase.
Some Fed officials have said tighter monetary policy is on the table if inflation does not wane. Others have noted that the end of rate-cut expectations in markets, coupled with tighter financial conditions, provides enough restraint for now to allow officials to weigh the data before acting again.
Many Fed officials expect inflation pressures to ease later this year, but that outlook is rooted in hopes of a swift resolution of the Iran war started by President Donald Trump.
In his speech, Schmid noted the U.S. is less exposed to energy shocks relative to the past, but all the same, higher gasoline prices detract from consumers’ spending ability.
He also noted that U.S. energy firms are not moving to produce more oil despite higher prices.
“My discussions with firms in my region suggest a high degree of caution,” the official said, adding, “Over the past decade, my contacts have moved toward far greater capital discipline and are reluctant to increase production while prices remain so uncertain.”
‘Nobody knows what’s going on’: Bolton on US-Iran talks
Former national security adviser John Bolton cast doubt Friday on whether the U.S. was on the cusp of reaching a long-term peace deal with Iran, as envoys from both nations prepare for another round of indirect talks in Pakistan.
Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, are expected to depart for Islamabad on Saturday. Vice President Vance, who led the U.S. delegation in the initial round of renewed talks two weeks ago, is not going but will be on standby, according to the White House.
Bolton, who also served as United Nations ambassador under former President George W. Bush, told NewsNation he thought it was a “mistake” to send Vance the first time.
“I don’t think you use the vice president unless you’re almost at closure, and for some reason the president can’t go,” he said. “But in any event, to say he’s on standby, as if somebody thinks that they’re on the cusp of a deal — they’re nowhere close to a deal.”
Pressed on why he believed that to be the case, Bolton said the sides remained far apart on “too many issues,” including the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
He also criticized Trump’s decision earlier this week to extend the temporary ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, arguing it could give the regime time to “get up off its back, to recover, regroup and get ready for the next phase” of the conflict.