Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What are ACA Enrollees Paying this Year due to Trump/GOP Policies?

NATIONAL: How much more are ACA enrollees *really* paying this year due to Trump/GOP policies? ACA Signups, Charles Gaba Partial post taken from; “How much more are ACA enrollees *really* paying this year due to Trump/GOP policies?” Charles Gaba @ ACA Signups. Nationally, on average, net ACA premiums have jumped by 58% this year vs. last, from […]

Jobles claims: the “low-hire, *no*-fire” regime continues, as the “Quick and Dirty” forecast model remains positive

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. In addition to being 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting system (the other 1/2 being stock prices), they have a 60 year history of being a good short leading indicator. [Later this morning we’ll get existing home sales, and I’ll […]

“Having Air Conditioning Is Not a Climate Sin”

As Lloyd says it, the real issue here are people and their habits of abusing the climate. These issues have been getting more and more serious as the years go by. And the people and their governments have been ignoring the coming threat of increasing heat. The attitude has been, we can fix it tomorrow. […]

Yes, wars have consequences, and the war with Iran seems to have been a serious mistake.

Tyler Cowen has a post up about recent developments in the U.S./Iran war. His post contains criticism of some not-so-smart and confused but unnamed others, and an attempt to win an argument with these unnamed opponents by questioning their credentials. I find this an unhelpful mode of argument. But he does ask an interesting question, […]

Once Again It Appears Iran has Rejected the Three Doors Being Offered-Up in “Tr__P Making Deals” Proposal

I keep imaging a a bizarre format “lets make a deal” by Tr__p attempting to entice Iran to accept a cease-fire in what he calls a “deal.” No other president has offered up (so many) deals when he negotiates or legislates. Just to be clear. I am aware of Teddy Rosevelt’s Square Deal, then Franklin […]

Regional Fed surveys confirm manufacturing rebound: services, not so much

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, pointing out that they have shown a rebound this year. Today let’s take a brief look at the regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes. Below are the manufacturing and services indexes, averaged over the four Fed districts whose […]

Scenes from the June jobs report: a weak but improving economy

– by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment report for June. To cut to the chase, this is of a piece of my “Big Picture” narrative from Friday in which I wrote that most of the signals suggest and economy coming […]