Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Can empire-sized Republics long survive, and the failure of judicial supremacy as a bulwark

On the self-government of prehistorical human settlements, whether empire-sized Republics can long survive, and the failure of judicial supremacy as a bulwark   Can the Empire-sized Republic long survive? This was the issue I pondered after Donald Trump was elected President in 2016. Once a country gets big enough, do elected officials ultimately fail, and people […]

April jobs report: strong Establishment survey, very weak Household survey

April jobs report: strong Establishment survey, very weak Household survey (UPDATED)  I got a late start on this report today (May 6). I’ll add much more detail shortly, but for now, be advised in summary that while the establishment report was strong, with mainly positive internals, the household report was very weak, with some very […]

Weekly Indicators for May 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Over the past few months, indicators across all timeframes have deteriorated. With increasing interest rates, and another Fed rate hike, that trend continued, and spread to credit conditions in a significant way. As […]

SPR, oil, distillates, product Inventories low

RJS, Focus on Fracking, Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 1058 week low, US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA […]

New jobless claims: a possible reversal with a slight rising trend

New jobless claims: a possible reversal with a slight rising trend Initial jobless claims rose 19,000 to 200,000, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose by 8,000 to 188,000, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set four weeks ago. On the other hand, […]

Oil Buyback Replenishing SPR

RJS; Focus on Fracking Oil Prices Top $111 As Biden’s SPR Buyback Plan Leaks — The Biden Administration will purchase 60 million barrels of crude in Q3 (Yahoo) in an effort to replace volumes in the U.S. strategic petroleum for the first time in nearly 20 years, CNN reports, after authorizing a record release over six […]

The impact of supply constraints on the US economy in 3 easy graphs

The impact of supply constraints on the US economy in 3 easy graphs The two most important purchases ever made by most consumers are (1) their houses, followed by (2) their motor vehicles. Indeed, according to Prof. Edward Leamer‘s forecasting model, ever since the end of World War 2 almost all American recessions have been […]

Construction Revisions Add 28 Basis Points to 1st Qtr GDP

RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: Construction Spending Rose 0.1% in March after Prior Months Were Revised Higher The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,730.5 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* above the revised annualized February […]

Dow Jones plunges 1,100 points today . . .

In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average slumping 3.3 percent. The S&P 500 index sinking 165 points, or 3.8 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was losing biggly, giving back 651 points, or 5 percent. I am not looking at investments today. The drop was wiping out the gains from the previous session’s massive rally. All […]