Can ChatGPT run a business? Color me very skeptical. This is a shockingly easy question, but I would not have predicted that ChatGPT would get it right, given its limited ability to do math and think logically. So, I am updating my assessment of ChatGPT (slightly) in a favorable direction. Still, before we get too […]
How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mastodon that largely relied on the following graph: concluding that “[A]t this point the burden of proof lies on […]
Weekly Indicators for January 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this yesterday, so here you go today . . . My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then you get a contratrend week, when a bunch of metrics move in the opposite direction […]
From the NYT opinion pages comes Paul Krugman’s description of the two basic problems of a declining population in a country, Dr. Krugman ues China as an example. China’s population declined last year, for the first time since the mass deaths associated with Mao Zedong’s disastrous Great Leap Forward in the 1960s. Or maybe it […]
Existing home sales and prices decline; plus, a closer look at multi-unit housing construction – by New Deal democrat I will keep my comments on December existing home sales and prices brief. That’s because, even though they make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. […]
I can not say I have been exposed to any of this switcheroo as my meds are older technology. We are also on regular Medicare and not Medicare Advantage. I have a larger say with the former. Part D works mostly except the pharmacies in my area are less helpful than they were in Michigan. […]
The actual Big News in this morning’s housing report was – positive – by New Deal democrat For the second month in a row, the biggest news in the housing report was not in the headlines. Most of what you are going to read is about how bad housing permits and starts were, and that […]
Jobless claims continue their string of good news – by New Deal democrat If yesterday’s economic data was bad, this morning’s was considerably better (I’ll post on housing construction later). Initial jobless claims declined 15,000 to 195,000, tied for their best number in almost 8 months. The 4 week moving average declined 6,500 to 206,000, […]
And the King of Coincident Indicators rolls over – by New Deal democrat This morning’s second big – and big negative – report was for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators (I call it so because historically, it more often than not marks the exact month +/-1 that a recession begins or ends). In […]
December real retail sales: the worst in almost two years – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators, was updated this morning for December, and it was significant. It’s not just that retail sales declined -1.1% for the month both in nominal and real terms; it’s that both October and […]