Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Some of New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for June 8 – 12

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. “Consumers Back Off – Slightly” There was little change this week, but restaurant reservations – the first expense I would expect stretched consumers to cut back on – did slacken a little bit. And withholding tax payments over the past four weeks barely […]

The entire US economy is downstream of the AI buildout dam, and that dam is almost certain to fail

– by New Deal democrat I’ve been ambivalent about whether the mania for AI is a Boom or a Bubble. That’s because whether its use is transformative or, like Steve Jobs’ claims that the Segway would revolutionize transportation, not so much.  But what has become increasingly clear is that virtually the entire economy has been […]

Decreased Factory Utilization and Increasing Capacity

Factory construction has trended downward due to economic uncertainty, throughput improvements, material costs increasing, and increasing interest rates. Companies are not willing to risk investment at this time without a sound future forecast to utilize additional factory production. The surge in 2024 was driven by policies such as the CHIPS Act. Demand cooled as companies […]

More evidence for the return of post-pandemic seasonality in jobless claims

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that “we’re coming up on the one year anniversary of that change of regime, so it will be interesting to see if the negative YoY comparisons continue, or if they fade away. This week’s numbers are noteworthy in that regard, because they suggest that – maybe – […]

“What will the politicians do to hold healthcare corporations accountable for high costs?”

Commentary by Andrew Sprung at his site: xpostfactoid. Besides the other factors, I will point out, Hospital Prices Have Risen Much Faster for Private Insurance Than Medicare Since 2019 per a KFF report in May of this year. The increases “represent approximately one third of total health care spending and accounted for 40% of spending growth from 2022 to […]

May CPI is “less bad,” but bad enough to edge consumers closer to recessionary income levels

– by New Deal democrat Just as forecast by the Cleveland Fed, the CPI in May increased 0.5% – less than the increases in March and April, but still too high. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased only 0.2%. The YoY% gains both also increased, to 4.2% and 2.8% respectively. to increase to […]

“Where Assets (and “Money”) Come From”

Steve Roth — Wealth Economics When you look at the left side of an entity’s balance sheet or its brokerage account statement, you see a list of things that the entity owns, with an estimate of what those assets are worth. The estimates are generally at current market value — what somebody would pay for those assets at […]